--- name: 13f_analyze plugin: portfolio-advisor description: > Surgical 13F analysis skill. Cross-references the latest SA LP 13F filing diff against target-portfolio.json to produce gated INITIATE/ACCUMULATE/TRIM/EXIT recommendations. Applies approved changes using update_targets.py. Trigger on "/13f-analyze", "analyze SA LP filing", "what does the new 13F mean for my portfolio", or "should I act on the 13F". allowed-tools: Bash, Read, Write --- # 13F Analyze Skill ## What This Skill Does 1. **Polls** for the latest SA LP 13F (runs fetch_13f.py --poll first — catches new filings automatically) 2. **Cross-references** SA LP holdings diff against `target-portfolio.json` targets and actions 3. **Gates** every signal through DCF + conflict rules (same discipline as x-news-sweep) 4. **Presents** a gated recommendation table — EXIT/TRIM/ACCUMULATE/INITIATE/HOLD/CONFLICT 5. **Applies** approved changes via `update_targets.py` with `agentRationale` updates --- ## When to Run - **After `/13f-tracker --poll` detects a new filing** — run `/13f-analyze` immediately - **At session start during filing windows**: May 1–15, Aug 1–15, Nov 1–15, Feb 1–15 - **To verify pending actions**: "does the SA LP filing change my plan for X?" **To refresh / poll for new filing:** ```bash venv/bin/python3 plugins/portfolio-advisor/scripts/fetch_13f.py --cik 0002045724 --poll ``` If new filing detected, it downloads automatically, then run `/13f-analyze`. --- ## Phase 1 — Poll and Load ```bash # Step 1: check for and download any new filing venv/bin/python3 plugins/portfolio-advisor/scripts/fetch_13f.py \ --cik 0002045724 --poll # Step 2: load diff and portfolio cat investment_screener/backend/data/13f/0002045724_diff.json cat investment_screener/backend/data/theses/target-portfolio.json ``` Load both files. Build a lookup: `{ ticker → { targetWeight, action, dcfSignal } }` from target-portfolio.json. --- ## Phase 2 — Cross-Reference Signals For each SA LP position change, produce a signal: ### SA LP CLOSED a position ``` If ticker in my portfolio: → Signal: EXIT or TRIM (depending on conviction) If ticker is an INITIATE target (targetWeight > 0, not yet owned): → Signal: DO NOT INITIATE — SA LP exited ``` ### SA LP OPENED a new position (large: >$50M) ``` If ticker NOT in my portfolio: → Signal: REVIEW FOR INITIATE If ticker already in portfolio at MAINTAIN/HOLD: → Signal: Consider increasing target If ticker already targeted for TRIM: → Signal: CONFLICT — SA initiating while you plan to trim (flag for user decision) ``` ### SA LP INCREASED significantly (>+50%) ``` → ACCUMULATE signal — reinforces any existing ACCUMULATE action If current action is TRIM or REVIEW: → CONFLICT — flag; SA may have information you don't ``` ### SA LP DECREASED significantly (>-30%) ``` → TRIM signal — reinforces any existing TRIM action If current action is ACCUMULATE: → CONFLICT — flag ``` --- ## Phase 3 — Gate Every Recommendation Apply these gates before showing the user anything: ### Gate A — No EXIT on SA call/option positions SA LP holding only calls (put_call == "Call") is an options position, not a long equity signal. Do NOT recommend EXIT on the underlying based on options alone. Example: INTC — SA has $747M in calls but closed common. Flag as NUANCED, not EXIT. ### Gate B — No INITIATE on DCF SELL-rated if SA also closed If SA closed AND DCF upside < 0%: BLOCKED — doubly bearish. ### Gate C — SA close ≠ immediate exit if high conviction thesis If SA closed a position but the holding has a strong independent thesis (e.g. a pillar-core position): → gate_status = CONFIRM (user must decide) → gate_reason = "SA closed but thesis still intact — confirm exit intent" ### Gate D — Weight constraints No single recommendation should push any position above 15% of portfolio. No single recommendation should push total portfolio weight above 100%. ### Gate E — INTC special rule SA LP holds $747M in INTC calls (13.5% of fund). They converted equity → options (Terafab upside capture). Your INTC equity position at 9.2% → trim to 7.5% is CONSISTENT with SA's move (reduce equity, maintain thesis exposure). Do not flag as conflict. --- ## Phase 4 — Present Gated Table ``` ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ 13F ANALYSIS — SA LP Q{quarter} {year} ║ ║ Filing: {filing_date} | Period: {period_of_report} ║ ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝ Ticker Your%→Target% Rec Gate SA LP Signal ------ ------------- --- ---- ------------ VST 2.1% → 1.2% EXIT ✅ APPROVED SA closed entire $252M position TSM 0% → 2.2% DON'T INIT ✅ APPROVED SA closed $75M position NVDA 2.1% → 2.8% HOLD/WAIT ⚠️ CONFLICT SA closed $299M; your thesis says accumulate BE 2.2% → 5.2% ACCELERATE ✅ APPROVED SA #1 position $875M (15.9%) CRWV 4.0% → 5.8% ACCELERATE ✅ APPROVED SA +336%, combined 21.9% of fund SNDK 0% → 0.7% INITIATE ✅ APPROVED SA +817% ($250M) LITE 2.3% → 2.1% ↑ TARGET ❓ CONFIRM SA new $479M (8.7%) — your target may be too low COHR 1.2% → 0.9% HOLD TRIM ⚠️ CONFLICT SA +211% while you plan to trim INTC 9.2% → 7.5% TRIM ✅ NUANCED SA converted equity→calls; trim equity consistent PANW 5.5% → 4.8% TRIM ✅ APPROVED Not in SA LP; own DCF confirms trim Approved: {N} | Conflicts: {N} | Blocked: {N} | Confirm: {N} ``` **Auto-proceed rule:** If all items are APPROVED or WARN (allowlisted SA/DCF conflicts), apply immediately without waiting for "apply" — state "Applying N approved changes..." and proceed to Phase 5. Only gate if any item is CONFIRM (new position needing approval) or BLOCKED. This prevents stale modal state after every 13F analysis. --- ## Phase 5 — Apply Approved Changes & Strategy Refactoring ```bash # 1. Update target weights in target-portfolio.json # For standard adjustments: python3 scripts/update_targets.py \ --set TICKER1=X.XX TICKER2=Y.YY \ --write --blueprint # For complex structural shifts (e.g. zeroing out exited sectors, locking actual weights, and auto-scaling): # Use the precision target sizing service: python3 investment_screener/backend/py_services/lock_and_normalize_targets.py \ --target-file investment_screener/backend/data/theses/target-portfolio.json \ --zeros INTC,NVDA,AMD,TSM,ASML,MU,LITE,COHR,EQT,DRAM \ --locks GOOG=4.4451,HUMN=2.8284,KOID=2.6500,COIN=2.8060,CRCL=3.3855,ETHA=0.0,IBIT=0.0 \ --adjusts BE=5.0,IREN=1.8,SNDK=0.5 \ --write # 2. Update metadata in investment_thesis.md # Update the metadata table at the top of investment_screener/backend/data/theses/investment_thesis.md to record: # | **Thesis Last Analyzed** | YYYY-MM-DD (Note) | # | **13F Last Refactored** | YYYY-MM-DD (Refactored SA LP Q{N} {year} filed {filing_date} into target-portfolio.json) | # 3. Synchronize the qualitative thesis layout with the new targets python3 plugins/portfolio-advisor/scripts/generate_portfolio_blueprint.py --write # 4. Update agentRationale for each changed ticker # Format: "SA LP Q{N} {year}: {specific signal — closed/new/+X%}. {action taken}." # 5. Generate review JSON, refresh, and run the automated verification suite python3 scripts/generate_review_json.py python3 scripts/verify_refresh.py python3 investment_screener/backend/py_services/verify_thesis_sync.py ``` --- ## Phase 6 — Session Close Print summary: ``` ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ 13F ANALYSIS COMPLETE ║ ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝ ✅ {N} targets updated (Investment Thesis v{version}) ✅ agentRationale updated for {N} tickers ✅ verify_refresh.py: All checks passed ✅ verify_thesis_sync.py: All synchronization checks passed Changes applied: VST 2.1% → 0.0% EXIT (SA closed) BE 2.2% → 5.2% ACCUM (SA #1 position) ... Deferred (confirm required): NVDA — SA closed but DCF strong; no change made LITE — target increase pending your decision ``` ### Chaining Instructions (Unified Investment Loop) > [!IMPORTANT] > After completing the 13F Analysis, explicitly prompt the user to trigger `/run-advisor` to run the **Portfolio Advisor Orchestrator** (`portfolio-advisor-orchestrator.md`). Explain that the orchestrator will: > 1. Run the interactive stock-by-stock Q&A for high-impact decisions (exits, initiations, adjusts > 1.5%). > 2. Coordinate **Precision Target Sizing & Normalization** (zeros, locks actual weights, normalizes to 100%, updates blueprints). > 3. Run the **Strategic Portfolio Review** (`/strategic-review`) to verify conviction alignment. > 4. Generate the **Rebalance** recommendations (`/rebalance`) to compute drift trades. > 5. Draft the automated **TradingView execution orders** (`/place-order`) with correct sequencing and accounts. --- ## Hard Rules 1. **Never apply** without Phase 3 gates. 2. **SA calls ≠ equity signal** — distinguish options vs common stock positions. 3. **Never blindly follow SA** — if your thesis contradicts SA, flag as CONFLICT, not auto-apply. 4. **Always update agentRationale** — future sessions need to know why targets changed. 5. **Run verify_refresh.py and verify_thesis_sync.py** — final gates before reporting done. 6. **Always verify synchronization** — never leave target-portfolio.json, investment_thesis.md, or projections/ out of sync. 7. **Lock Gate 7 / Actual Weights** — when sector liquidations occur, lock core and thematic holdings to exact actual broker weights to prevent unintended drift during normalization. 8. **Log Thesis Analysis & 13F Refactor Dates** — always update the `Thesis Last Analyzed` and `13F Last Refactored` metadata keys in `investment_thesis.md` to guarantee visibility of active strategy updates. 9. **Chaining MANDATE** — Never end a 13F analysis session without explicitly prompting the user to run `/run-advisor` to execute target calibration, strategic review, rebalancing, and TradingView order drafting. --- ## Refresh Trigger (How to Check for New Filings) Say any of: - "check for new SA LP 13F" - "poll for new 13F filing" - "any new SA LP filings?" This runs: ```bash venv/bin/python3 plugins/portfolio-advisor/scripts/fetch_13f.py \ --cik 0002045724 --poll ``` If new filing found → automatically runs `/13f-analyze`. **Filing windows:** Poll daily from May 1–15, Aug 1–15, Nov 1–15, Feb 1–15. Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar period): filing due by ~May 15, 2026 — check now.