--- name: aer-workflow description: Use when deciding which AER-skills sub-skill to use next, or when sequencing manuscript work from topic selection through rebuttal for the American Economic Review, AER:Insights, or AEJ journals. Routes — does not replace — the specialized skills. --- # AER Workflow ## Overview This is the router. It does not replace any specialized skill. It tells you which one to use next, and in what order. Default assumption: unless the user names a different venue, the manuscript targets **AER**, **AER: Insights**, or an **AEJ** journal — not a finance journal, not a generic economics field journal, and not a working-paper repository. ## When to Use - The user asks "what should I work on next?" - The user dumps a draft and you must decide where the bottleneck is - The user is rotating between writing, empirics, and revision and loses track of which stage they are in - A new reviewer report has arrived and the work mode must switch from drafting to rebuttal ## Routing Map Use: - `aer-topic-selection` when the project is new, when the user is undecided between AER / Insights / an AEJ, or when the contribution sentence cannot be written in one line - `aer-identification` when the empirical design is the bottleneck — DiD, IV, RDD, SCM, shift-share, event study, RCT analysis - `aer-robustness` when the main results exist but referee-anticipating checks (placebo, heterogeneity, mechanism, alternative samples) are missing or weak - `aer-introduction` when drafting or rewriting the introduction, or when the abstract is over 100 words - `aer-tables-figures` when regression tables are inconsistent, oversized, footnote-bloated, or do not match AER house style - `aer-replication` when preparing the AEA Data and Code Availability deposit, writing the README, or auditing reproducibility before acceptance - `aer-submission` when running the final preflight before clicking submit — length, format, cover letter, conflicts - `aer-rebuttal` when reviewer comments exist and a point-by-point response letter plus aligned manuscript edits are needed ## Default Sequence For most empirical AER-track manuscripts, prefer this order: 1. `aer-topic-selection` — fix the contribution sentence and the target venue *before* anything else 2. `aer-identification` — stress-test the design; if it fails here, no later skill saves the paper 3. `aer-robustness` — anticipate the three robustness checks the median referee will demand 4. `aer-introduction` — only now write the five-paragraph intro and the 100-word abstract 5. `aer-tables-figures` — finalize the main exhibits in AER house style 6. `aer-replication` — assemble the deposit package while results are still fresh in code 7. `aer-submission` — final preflight: length, format, cover letter, COI 8. `aer-rebuttal` — after external review, revise manuscript first, then write the letter against the revised version ## Decision Cues If the user says... - *"I have an idea but I don't know if it's AER-worthy"* → `aer-topic-selection` - *"My DiD has staggered treatment"* → `aer-identification` - *"My first stage F is 8"* → `aer-identification` (weak-IV branch) - *"The referee said the result might be driven by X"* → `aer-robustness` - *"My intro is 4 pages and the editor hated it"* → `aer-introduction` - *"My table 3 has 14 columns"* → `aer-tables-figures` - *"The Data Editor flagged my README"* → `aer-replication` - *"I'm submitting tomorrow"* → `aer-submission` - *"I got an R&R with three reports"* → `aer-rebuttal` ## Common Mistakes - polishing the introduction before the identification strategy is stable - writing the abstract before deciding AER vs AER:Insights (the 100-word limit is the same but the *framing* differs sharply) - treating tables and figures as a final-week task; AER tables drive how reviewers read results - writing the rebuttal letter against the old draft instead of the revised manuscript - assembling the replication package only after acceptance — the AEA Data Editor's report is now part of the production timeline and can delay publication by weeks - defaulting to the OLS + cluster-by-state recipe; modern AER demands design-based identification ## Anti-Patterns - Using a generic "scientific writing" skill in place of `aer-introduction` — the introduction conventions differ (no heading, five-paragraph Head formula, ≤ 100-word abstract) - Using a generic "data availability" skill in place of `aer-replication` — the AEA policy is *unusually* strict and the openICPSR workflow is specific - Skipping `aer-topic-selection` because "I already know this is an AER paper" — desk rejection at AER is ~60% and the top-5 bar is *cross-subfield interest*, not technical competence ## Handoff Contract Whenever this skill is invoked, end with: ```text NEXT SKILL: REASON: INPUTS NEEDED: ``` This keeps the agent loop tight when the user runs multiple skills in sequence.