--- name: crucible-emergent-resurrection description: Use when a hypothesis has failed and needs archiving with resurrection conditions, when reviewing dormant ideas for possible revival, when a previously-killed strategy resembles the current one, or when investigating whether market conditions have changed enough to retry an archived campaign. Covers the taxonomy of failure modes (null-insignificant, overfit, cross-asset-failed, wrong-null-applied, etc.), the dormant-vs-dead distinction, resurrect_if frontmatter schema, and the 3-layer exhumation process (autonomous flag → agent review → human sign-off). TRIGGERS - dormant, failed hypothesis, resurrect, exhume, conditions changed, archived, try again, previously failed, negative knowledge, dead but not buried, re-emerge, resurrection conditions. allowed-tools: Read, Write, Edit, Grep, Glob --- # Emergent Resurrection — negative-knowledge archive > **Self-Evolving Skill**: If the failure taxonomy misses a mode, or a resurrection trigger type recurs, update the relevant section AND append to `references/evolution-log.md`. Don't defer. Failed hypotheses are not waste. They are negative knowledge that: 1. Documents the investigation's boundaries 2. Prevents re-exploring known dead ends 3. Can come back when conditions change This skill is the genetic-evolutionary mechanism for "**don't rule out anything we have tried, as long as it can emerge through iterative process**". --- ## Why NOT just delete failed ideas The session accumulated 17 null campaigns. Without negative-knowledge capture, we would: - Re-explore the same dead ends in future sessions (wasted compute) - Lose the meta-lesson each failure taught (wrong null, wrong scaling, wrong scope) - Be unable to detect when conditions have shifted enough to retry Failed attempts are cheaper to preserve than to re-run. --- ## Failure-mode taxonomy Each failed campaign fits one or more modes. Classification determines resurrection conditions. | Failure mode | Description | Resurrection trigger | | ------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | `null-insignificant` | Signal exists but below noise floor | Noise floor drops (longer backtest, better data, reduced cost) | | `overfit-in-sample` | Strong IS, poor OOS | Cross-validation success on a different data regime or architectural redesign | | `wrong-null-applied` | Correct signal, wrong null type broke it | Correct null method discovered (see Skill B §5 orthogonal cascade) | | `cross-asset-failed` | Works on one asset, breaks on others | Same config trial on a DIFFERENT asset passing, OR regime detector enabling per-asset selection | | `regime-conditional` | Full-history fails; edge concentrated in specific regime | Causal walk-forward regime classification + train/test both positive within regime + null z>3 | | `label-leaked` | Features/labels violated causality | Causality re-verified (`bars[:i]` exclusive) and retest OK | | `agent-overestimation` | Agent's estimate > reality | External oracle or per-bar replay validates a scaled-down version | | `grid-degenerate` | Parameter grid too narrow | Widen grid, OR sensitivity analysis reveals dormant dimension | | `dormant-low-precedence` | Valid but lower priority | Higher-priority frontier cleared, revisit | | `falsified-comprehensive` | Tested exhaustively; impossible under stated assumptions | Assumptions change (new asset class, new microstructure, regime shift) | Each archived file tags one or more of these. --- ## Archive structure ``` plugins/crucible/skills/d-emergent-resurrection/references/ ├── archive/ │ ├── -.md Dormant/failed campaign record │ └── ... ├── falsified/ │ └── -.md Permanently falsified (highest bar for resurrection) └── exhumation-log.jsonl Append-only: when ideas moved, why ``` The distinction: - `archive/` = dormant, not dead. Awaiting the right conditions. - `falsified/` = tested exhaustively under clear assumptions. Resurrection requires assumption change. --- ## Archive file template Use this frontmatter structure when moving a failed idea to archive: ```yaml --- id: "UNIQUE-ID" title: "Short descriptive title" status: "dormant" # or "falsified" failure_mode: ["null-insignificant"] # list; can be multiple confidence: 0.95 # how sure we are it's dead NOW date_dormant: YYYY-MM-DD verdict: | One-paragraph summary of what was tested and why it failed. linked_ledger_entries: - "FINDING-ID-IN-EVOLUTION-JSONL" linked_audits: - "findings/evolution/audits/YYYY-MM-DD-slug/verdict.md" resurrect_if: - condition: "noise_floor_drops" trigger_metric: "trade_level_volatility" threshold: "< 1.2 bps (was 2.1 bps at dormancy)" requires: "6+ month new backtest reducing noise > 30%" - condition: "new_asset_regime" trigger_metric: "asset_correlation_cluster" threshold: "Jaccard(newasset_patterns, eur_patterns) > 0.65" requires: "Trial on new asset with fold-shuffle p < 0.05" whats_blocked: - "List of specific reasons it was shelved" next_agent_checklist: - [ ] If noise_floor drops > 30%: re-run config on latest data - [ ] Do NOT assume dead — it's 'not now, but perhaps next regime' --- # Title ``` --- ## The 3-layer exhumation process Resurrection is deliberate. Never auto-resurrect. **Layer 1 — Autonomous flag**: periodically (can be a cron job or session-start check), scan `archive/*` for files whose `resurrect_if` conditions might be currently met. Tag with `CANDIDATE_FOR_RESURRECTION_`. This ONLY flags; it does NOT resurrect. **Layer 2 — Agent review**: next research session or autonomous agent reviews tagged candidates. Picks ONE to trial (prevents thrashing). Runs 1-2 folds to check if signal has genuinely re-emerged. Either: - Promotes to active campaign (`status: "active"`, new audit folder) - Updates archive file's frontmatter: "false positive at , conditions looked met but retry failed" **Layer 3 — Human sign-off**: before deploying anything resurrected to production (or giving it resources beyond initial re-trial), human reviews exhumation report. Confirms the condition-change is real, not a data artifact. --- ## When to archive (triggers) During a research session, move to `archive/` when: - A serial-gate failure killed the signal (Skill B §2, Gate C — the Irrecoverable one) - A shuffled-null test decisively rejected (z < 1 and p > 0.9) - 20+ parameter combos all failed → the whole approach gets archived, not each combo - Cross-asset Gate D fails → archive the "universal" interpretation; keep asset-specific as scoped-down live version (see Skill C §3) Archive ≠ silence. Write the file; append to `exhumation-log.jsonl`: ```json { "date": "YYYY-MM-DD", "action": "archive", "id": "...", "reason": "...", "from_audit": "..." } ``` --- ## When NOT to archive - A finding survives all gates but produces modest economics — that's `live-limited-economics`, not dormant; keep active and look for ensemble partners - A finding partially fails one gate — see Skill C §3 (scope narrows, doesn't kill) - A method used in a campaign that gave null results — the method itself isn't archived; only the specific hypothesis - User interest waned mid-campaign — that's not a failure mode; mark as `paused` elsewhere --- ## Population-level resurrection signals Beyond individual-file `resurrect_if`, watch for population-level conditions: - **Multiple failed campaigns share a failure mode** → the common cause may be addressable (e.g., all 5 used wrong null type → invent new null → resurrect all 5) - **New method/technology emerges** → old failures under old methods may flip - **Asset microstructure shifts** → asset-specific failures may reverse --- ## Integration with the ledger `findings/evolution/evolution.jsonl` entries gain a `dormant_refs` field: ```json { "id": "FINDING-ID", "status": "null", "dormant_refs": [ { "archive_file": "plugins/crucible/skills/d-emergent-resurrection/references/archive/.md", "failure_mode": ["null-insignificant"], "resurrect_conditions": ["noise_floor_drops", "new_asset_regime"] } ] } ``` Bidirectional: ledger → archive file, archive file → ledger. --- ## Current archive (seed state) Session `ca9d7ffa-ef5a-41d0-94c8-56f113a132f2` produced: - 17 null campaigns → each should have an archive file (SEEDING STATE: archive files not yet backfilled; do this when touching individual campaign verdicts) - 1 positive finding (`NGRAM3FU-STRADDLE-001-FULL-STACK`) → remains active, NOT archived Backfilling 17 archive entries is a future task; initial `references/archive/` is intentionally empty until each campaign's verdict is reviewed and archive-written. --- ## Post-Execution Reflection After invoking this skill: 1. Did archiving a failed idea happen cleanly? If the file was too sparse or too detailed, update the template above. 2. Did `resurrect_if:` conditions fire (layer 1)? Were they appropriately specific, or too vague? Refine. 3. New failure mode not in the taxonomy? Add a row; log to `references/evolution-log.md`. 4. A previously-archived idea resurrected successfully? Document the exhumation in `exhumation-log.jsonl` AND note the condition pattern that worked — this is meta-knowledge.