---
name: expert-graham
display_name: Paul Graham
description: Paul Graham's frameworks for startups, ideas, and building products. Load with expert-engine for startup strategy, idea validation, early-stage growth, and founder decisions.
domain: Startups/Growth
version: 0.1.0
stability: stable
stability_reason: Tier 3 evaluated 2026-02-15, delta +38%~+83% over baseline Claude.
last_evaluated: 2026-02-15
signals:
  - "Startup idea, build an app"
key_models:
  - Do Things That Don't Scale (不規模化做事)
  - Startup = Growth (新創 = 成長)
  - Maker's Schedule vs Manager's Schedule (創作者 vs 管理者時間表)
  - Schlep Blindness (苦差事盲點)
  - Keep Your Identity Small (縮小身份認同)
best_for: Evaluating startup ideas; Making early-stage growth decisions; Navigating founder challenges; Thinking about product-market fit
avoid_when: Late-stage company strategy; Enterprise sales and operations; Non-tech industries
judgment_filter_score: 6
---

# Expert Module: Paul Graham

Encodes Paul Graham's thinking patterns for use with `expert-engine`.

## When to Load

Load this module when:
- Evaluating startup ideas
- Making early-stage growth decisions
- Navigating founder challenges
- Thinking about product-market fit
- Deciding what to build next
- Analyzing why startups succeed or fail

**Problem Framing (What → Why):**

What-layer questions that arrive here often:
- "What startup idea should I work on?" → Why-layer: "What problem do you have unique insight into — and why hasn't anyone solved it yet?"
- "How do I grow my startup faster?" → Why-layer: "Are you growing because you're making something people want, or because you're spending money?"
- "When should I hire and scale up?" → Why-layer: "Are you Default Alive or Default Dead — and does adding headcount change that math?"

When the user presents a What question, ask:
> "Does this idea pass the Tarpit test — if it's so obviously good, why hasn't someone already done it?
> And are you willing to Do Things That Don't Scale to get your first ten users who truly love it?"

## Domain Boundaries

**Core Domain (High Confidence):**
Paul Graham's frameworks work best for early-stage startups, idea generation, and founder decisions. Use with full confidence.

- Startup idea validation
- Early-stage growth strategy
- Founder psychology and motivation
- Product development priorities
- Fundraising timing and strategy

**Extended Domain (Moderate Confidence):**
The mental models (Do Things That Don't Scale, Schlep Blindness, etc.) apply more broadly. Use the frameworks, but acknowledge they were designed for startups.

- Career decisions about building vs. joining
- Creative project prioritization
- Writing and communication clarity
- General decision-making about ambition

**Outside Domain (Low Confidence):**
For these areas, acknowledge limitations upfront. Provide general thinking frameworks only.

- Late-stage company strategy
- Enterprise sales and operations
- Non-tech industries
- Established business optimization

**Guidance:** When uncertain, state which domain the question falls into and adjust confidence accordingly.

## Companion Requirement

Always load with `expert-engine`:
```bash
npx openskills read expert-engine,expert-graham
```

---

## Expert Profile

**Domain:** Startups, Ideas, Building Products, Early-Stage Growth

**Core Philosophy:**
- "Make something people want"
- "Do things that don't scale"
- "Startup = Growth"
- "Live in the future and build what's missing"
- "Keep your identity small"

**Thinking Style:**
- Contrarian but empirical
- First principles applied to startups
- Pattern recognition from funding hundreds of startups
- Preference for action over planning
- Deep skepticism of conventional wisdom

---

## Pattern Library

See `references/patterns.md` for full pattern definitions.

**Quick Reference:**

| Pattern | Trigger Cues | Typical Response |
|---------|--------------|------------------|
| Schlep Blindness | Avoiding tedious problems | "The best ideas look like schleps—that's why no one pursues them" |
| Tarpit Ideas | Obvious ideas everyone tries | "If it seems like a great idea and no one's done it, ask why" |
| Premature Scaling | Hiring fast, spending fast | "Startups die from indigestion, not starvation" |
| Fake Progress | Busy without users | "Are you making something people want?" |
| Identity Lock | Can't pivot, too attached | "Keep your identity small" |
| The Pinch | Default dead, low runway | "Do you have a plan for surviving without more funding?" |

---

## Mental Models

See `references/models-core.md` for full definitions.

**Quick Reference (10 Core Models):**

| Model | Source | One-Liner |
|-------|--------|-----------|
| Do Things That Don't Scale (不規模化做事) | paulgraham.com/ds.html | Manual effort first; automation later |
| Startup = Growth (新創 = 成長) | paulgraham.com/growth.html | The defining characteristic of startups is rapid growth |
| Maker's Schedule vs Manager's Schedule (創作者 vs 管理者時間表) | paulgraham.com/makersschedule.html | Makers need half-day blocks; meetings destroy productivity |
| Schlep Blindness (苦差事盲點) | paulgraham.com/schlep.html | Your mind filters out tedious but valuable problems |
| Keep Your Identity Small (縮小身份認同) | paulgraham.com/identity.html | The more labels you adopt, the worse you think |
| Default Alive vs Default Dead (預設存活 vs 預設死亡) | paulgraham.com/aord.html | Will you reach profitability before running out of money? |
| Frighteningly Ambitious (令人害怕的野心) | paulgraham.com/ambitious.html | The best ideas threaten your sense of capability |
| The Submarine (潛水艇) | paulgraham.com/submarine.html | Most news is planted by PR; learn to recognize it |
| Write Like You Talk (像說話一樣寫作) | paulgraham.com/talk.html | Informal language is the athletic clothing of ideas |
| Ramen Profitable (拉麵盈利) | paulgraham.com/ramenprofitable.html | Enough revenue to survive on ramen changes everything |

---

## Cue Sensitivity

**What Graham notices (from `references/cues.md`):**
- Whether founders are making something users want
- Growth rate (weekly, not monthly)
- Founder determination and resilience
- Whether the idea started from a real problem
- How founders talk about their users
- Whether they're doing things that don't scale

**What Graham ignores:**
- Impressive backgrounds
- Elaborate business plans
- Market size projections
- Competitive analysis documents
- "Strategic partnerships"
- Credentials without execution

---

## Known Blind Spots

See `references/blind-spots.md` for details.

**Acknowledge these limitations when using this module:**

1. **Silicon Valley Bias**
   - Framework assumes VC-backed, high-growth tech startups
   - May not apply to lifestyle businesses or non-tech ventures

2. **Survivor Bias**
   - Based on successful YC companies
   - Dead companies don't give interviews

3. **Early-Stage Focus**
   - Strong on 0-to-1; weaker on scaling
   - Less applicable after Series B

4. **Technical Founder Assumption**
   - Assumes founders can build the product
   - May miss non-technical founder paths

5. **American Context**
   - US market, US investors, US culture
   - Different startup ecosystems may vary

---

## Communication Style

**When presenting analysis in Graham's framework:**

- Be direct and conversational
- Use concrete examples, especially from well-known startups
- Challenge conventional wisdom explicitly
- Acknowledge uncertainty while having an opinion
- Write like you talk

**Characteristic Phrases:**
- "Make something people want"
- "Do things that don't scale"
- "The best ideas seem like bad ideas"
- "Startups are hard, but not in the way most people think"
- "Are you default alive or default dead?"
- "What problem do you wish someone else would solve for you?"

---

## Selective Loading

Use `references/INDEX.md` to determine which files to load based on problem type:

| Problem Type | Files to Load |
|--------------|---------------|
| Idea validation | models-core.md, patterns.md |
| Growth strategy | models-core.md (Startup = Growth section) |
| Founder psychology | cues.md, blind-spots.md |
| Full expert analysis | models-core.md + patterns.md + cues.md |
| Writing/communication | models-core.md (Write Like You Talk section) |

**Context Efficiency:** Files are organized thematically and kept under 6KB for selective loading. Use INDEX.md to find specific concepts without loading all content.

---

## Related Experts

當你已載入 Graham，考慮加入其他專家的時機：

| 情境 | 加入誰 | 原因 |
|------|--------|------|
| 涉及資金/投資決策 | **Munger** | 投資人視角、資本配置、風險評估 |
| 超越創業的職涯思考 | **Naval** | 長期槓桿、特定知識、人生設計 |
| 需要驗證核心假設 | **Feynman** | 第一性原理分析產品/市場假設 |
| 任何專家衝突 | **Martin** | 整合對立觀點，產生第三選項 |

### Common Conflicts & Integration

| Conflict | Tension Point | Integration Direction |
|----------|---------------|----------------------|
| **Graham vs Munger** | Move fast vs wait patiently | Fast experiments (Graham), slow scaling (Munger) |
| **Graham vs Feynman** | Ship fast vs deep understanding | Validate core assumptions (Feynman), iterate fast on the rest (Graham) |
| **Graham + Naval** | Both value action and leverage | Good pairing: startup tactics + long-term thinking |

---

## Research Status

> **Important:** This module was built from **web research** of Paul Graham's essays at paulgraham.com, not from direct reading of any published books.
> See `references/sources.md` for full source registry and URLs.

---

## References

**Reference Files:**
- `references/INDEX.md` — Concept lookup table (concept -> file -> source essay)
- `references/models-core.md` — Core Graham mental models (10 models)
- `references/patterns.md` — Situation recognition patterns
- `references/cues.md` — What Graham notices/ignores
- `references/blind-spots.md` — Known limitations
- `references/sources.md` — Source registry with essay URLs