--- name: find-alpha description: Find alpha across 3 time horizons (1-3 week swing, 1-3 month position, 6-12+ month LEAPS). Each scan returns top 3 candidates with strict filters (insider real buying not RSU, theme fit, catalyst, valuation). Designed to be invoked manually OR via schedule (weekly Monday pre-market). Companion to review-investment-screenshot skill. --- # Find Alpha โ€” 3-Horizon Screener **Goal:** Find 3 tickers per time horizon (swing / position / LEAPS) where market hasn't fully priced the upside. Not "good companies" โ€” **mispriced setups**. **Companion to** `review-investment-screenshot`. Output of this skill feeds INTO that skill for full review. --- ## ๐Ÿ” Pre-flight checklist โ€” run BEFORE returning any candidate Discovery is the easy half. Execution discipline is where alpha leaks. Every candidate output MUST pass: 1. **Macro regime gate** โ€” trigger `macro-warning` skill first. Regime determines which horizons to run: - ๐ŸŸข GREEN: all 3 horizons (swing + position + LEAPS) - ๐ŸŸก YELLOW: position + LEAPS only (skip swing โ€” chop kills swings) - ๐Ÿ”ด RED: LEAPS only at deep value, no swing/position adds. Output should default to "no swings/positions this week" in RED. 2. **Insider strict per candidate** โ€” already in Hard Rules #1 below. Don't bend it for a "great story." 3. **3-tier entry MANDATORY per candidate** โ€” output "Entry: $X" alone is insufficient. Must be T1 (trigger) / T2 (50DMA or 20% drawdown) / T3 (200DMA or 38% drawdown). User should never have to ask "but at what price specifically?" 4. **Position size capped per horizon** (already defined in horizons below โ€” enforce strictly): - Swing: 1-2% per pick ยท Position: 2-4% ยท LEAPS: 3-5% - High-beta total book โ‰ค 50%. 5. **Tax flag for Swing horizon** โ€” Swing = 1-3 weeks = STCG when exited. If user is in high bracket, surface that explicitly in output ("STCG ~30% federal โ€” net win must clear that"). 6. **No "speculative" hidden in confidence** โ€” If thesis is unverified, label "๐ŸŸก SPECULATIVE" in confidence column. Don't bundle speculation into 8/10 ratings. **"Look carefully" rule**: blacklisted names (APH, EME, ETN, PWR, POWL, GEV) and similar distribution-at-top patterns return via news cycles. Always re-verify with `insider_ratio.py`, don't trust the cached blacklist as the only filter. New distribution patterns appear; refresh the blacklist quarterly. See [README's Hard Rules](../README.md#%EF%B8%8F-hard-rules-never-violate) for the full anti-pattern list. --- ## When to invoke - User asks: "find alpha", "find me 3 tickers", "what's the next MRVL setup", "screen swing trades", "weekly alpha scan" - Scheduled run (Monday pre-market, weekly) - After major macro event (Fed decision, big earnings) โ€” universe regime may have shifted ## Hard rules (carry over from review-investment-screenshot) 1. **Insider data must come from `insider_ratio.py --window 90` (openinsider primary)** โ€” never trust yfinance net% headline. 2. **Form 4 code "P" only counts as buy.** A/M/F/G are RSU/exercise/tax โ€” NOT buys, regardless of how news headlines describe them. Verified false positives: UNH "10 directors 4/1/2026" (all DSU grants), PLTR "Karp 1.47M shares" (RSU vesting). 3. **Filter out 52w-high distribution traps** (positions where insider net is "+net buy" but absolute SELL $ >> BUY $). Verified blacklist: APH, EME, ETN, PWR, POWL, GEV. 4. **Each candidate must have action + size + reason** (entry, stop, target, why). 5. **Confidence < 7/10 โ†’ don't include**. Quality > quantity. If only 2 candidates pass at swing horizon, output 2 not 3. 6. **No backtest fabrication**. If thesis is unverified, label "speculative." 7. **Theme fit explicit** โ€” name the cluster (CPU inference, AI DC photonics, nuclear, etc.) not "AI play." 8. **Use `cluster_buy_scan.py` to discover new candidates** โ€” it hits openinsider.com/latest-cluster-buys directly. Don't rely on news article "cluster buy" claims; verify Form 4 code = "P" for every name. --- ## The 3 horizons + their alpha sources ### Horizon 1: Swing (1-3 weeks) **Primary signals (any 2 must hit):** - Earnings within 21 days + ESP > +3% + last 4Q beat โ‰ฅ 3 - Short squeeze: short % of float > 15% + days-to-cover > 5 - Gamma squeeze: ATM/OTM call OI > put OI 3:1 within 30 DTE - Insider cluster buy within last 14 days (โ‰ฅ2 insiders, ratio โ‰ฅ 3:1) - Mean reversion: 10-15% drop from 30d high + RSI < 30 + bounce confirmed **Sizing:** 1-2% of book per pick (small, fast, high-uncertainty). **Stop:** -8% from entry or break of MA20. **Script:** `swing_scan.py` ### Horizon 2: Position (1-3 months) **Primary signals (any 2 must hit):** - Insider cluster buy within 60 days (ratio buy:sell โ‰ฅ 2:1, $ value > $500k) - Analyst PT raises (3+ in last 30 days) - Quarter earnings revision: NTM EPS revision > +5% in last 30 days - Mean reversion: near MA200 + RSI 30-50 + recent insider activity - Catalyst within 30-90 days (product launch, FDA, contract, M&A rumor) **Sizing:** 2-4% of book per pick. **Stop:** -12% from entry or thesis break. **Script:** `position_scan.py` ### Horizon 3: LEAPS Thesis (6-12+ months) **Primary signals (any 2 must hit):** - Founder/family/10%+ holder open-market buy โ‰ฅ $5M (AMKR Kim family pattern) - Forward P/E < 25x AND revenue growth > 20% (GARP) - Below MA200 (early cycle) + cash > 15% of mcap + low debt - Multi-year secular thesis: CPU inference, AI DC photonics, edge AI, nuclear power, US re-shoring - New CEO with skin-in-the-game (LSCC pattern: $1M+ open-market buy in first 3 months) **Sizing:** 3-5% of book per pick. Use deep-ITM LEAPS (delta 0.85+) as stock replacement. **Stop:** -25% from entry or fundamental thesis break. **Script:** `leaps_scan.py` --- ## Workflow when invoked 1. **Start with cluster-buy discovery** โ€” fast pass to surface market-wide candidates: ```bash uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/cluster_buy_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) --days 30 --min-value 500000 --min-insiders 2 --detail --enrich ``` 2. **Run the 3 scripts in parallel:** ```bash uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/find-alpha/scripts/swing_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) & uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/find-alpha/scripts/position_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) & uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/find-alpha/scripts/leaps_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) & wait ``` 3. For each finalist (top 5 from each script), **call `insider_ratio.py --window 90` to verify** (uses openinsider primary). 4. Cross-check any "cluster" claims at openinsider.com/[TICKER] for Form 4 code "P". 5. For each verified candidate, do a **2-paragraph deep dive**: thesis, why mispriced, what could break it. 6. Output formatted table (see below). ## Output format ``` # Alpha Scan โ€” [DATE] ## ๐Ÿ“Š Macro regime (gate โ€” drives which horizons output) ๐ŸŸข/๐ŸŸก/๐Ÿ”ด โ€” [1-line: composite score, sectors hot/cold, regime call] [If ๐Ÿ”ด โ†’ "Only LEAPS horizon below. Swing/Position disabled this scan."] ## ๐ŸŽฏ Top 3 SWING (1-3 weeks) โ€” [SKIP if regime != ๐ŸŸข] | Rank | Ticker | Thesis (1 line) | T1 | T2 | T3 | Stop | Target | Size | Confidence | | 1 | XXX | ... | $X | $X | $X | $X | $X | 1.5% | 8/10 | Where T1=trigger, T2=50DMA or -20%, T3=200DMA or -38%. โš ๏ธ STCG warning: 1-3 week swing = short-term cap gains when exited. [For each: 2-paragraph deep dive. Must explicitly call out macro regime + insider verification.] ## ๐ŸŽฏ Top 3 POSITION (1-3 months) โ€” [SKIP if regime == ๐Ÿ”ด] [Same structure with T1/T2/T3, size 2-4%] ## ๐ŸŽฏ Top 3 LEAPS (6-12+ months) [Same structure with T1/T2/T3 for underlying, size 3-5%, mention dec 2027 vs jan 2028 expiry choice] ## โš ๏ธ Disqualified candidates [Names that came up in scan but failed insider_ratio strict check. Include WHY (e.g. "INTC: 4 sells, 0 buys 90d", "PLTR: Karp Rule 10b5-1 vesting only โ€” looks like buy but isn't").] ## ๐Ÿงฎ Sizing summary - Current high-beta book exposure: X% (cap 50%) - This scan's adds if all accepted: +Y% - Post-add high-beta: Z% [warn if > 50%] ``` --- ## Tool cheat-sheet | Task | Script | |------|--------| | **Market-wide cluster-buy discovery** | `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/cluster_buy_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) --days 30 --min-value 500000 --min-insiders 2 --detail --enrich` (always run first) | | 1-3 week swing alpha scan | `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/find-alpha/scripts/swing_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1)` | | 1-3 month position alpha scan | `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/find-alpha/scripts/position_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1)` | | LEAPS alpha scan | `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/find-alpha/scripts/leaps_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1)` | | **Verify candidate insider strict** (openinsider primary) | `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/insider_ratio.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) "TICKER" --window 90` (mandatory cross-check). Add `--source both` for high-stakes calls. | | Live quote/MAs | `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/quote_pull.py 2>/dev/null | head -1)` | | Option walls | `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/option_walls.py 2>/dev/null | head -1)` | | Max pain | `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/max_pain.py 2>/dev/null | head -1)` | --- ## Schedule integration This skill is configured to auto-run via cron: - **Mondays 8:00 AM ET (pre-market)**: full 3-horizon scan - **Daily 9:15 AM ET (15 min before open)**: swing-only scan (catches overnight catalysts) - **First of each month**: LEAPS-only deep scan Schedule managed via `schedule` skill. Trigger names: - `weekly-alpha-scan` (Monday) - `daily-swing-scan` (weekdays) - `monthly-leaps-scan` (1st of month) To pause: `/schedule pause [trigger-name]`. To run on-demand: just ask "run alpha scan now." --- ## Hard exclusions (verified distribution-at-top, do not surface) These appeared with positive net% but failed strict buy-vs-sell check on 2026-04-24: - **APH, EME, ETN, PWR, POWL, GEV** โ€” all CEO/Officer dumping at 52w high These will be auto-filtered by scripts via blacklist. ## Anti-patterns (will reject candidates if these appear) - "Insider net buy %" used as primary signal without dollar ratio - Tax-withholding events counted as sales (filtered automatically) - RSU grants counted as buys (filtered automatically) - Single-Director small buy ($<$200k) without C-suite confirmation - Stock at 52w high + recent C-suite open market sell > $5M (auto-blacklist)