---
name: geopolitical-overlay
description: >
  Direct the geopolitical overlay subdomain — route macro-geopolitical investment questions
  to the right specialist skill covering great-power dynamics, energy security, or secular themes.
  Use when the user needs to assess how geopolitical forces shape portfolio positioning.
metadata:
  author: nirav
  version: "1.0"
compatibility: Designed for Claude Code
allowed-tools: Read Glob
---

# Geopolitical Overlay Director

The department head for geopolitical investing analysis. Routes questions to the right specialist, defines the analysis order, and resolves conflicts between geopolitical frameworks.

## Routing Logic

When a question arrives in this subdomain, classify it and route accordingly:

| Question Pattern | Route To | Why |
|-----------------|----------|-----|
| US-China tensions, trade wars, Taiwan risk, sanctions, alliances | `great-power-dynamics` | State-level strategic competition |
| Oil markets, renewables, nuclear, grid, critical minerals, ESG | `energy-security` | Energy supply/demand and transition |
| AI investment cycle, demographics, deglobalization, debt, climate | `secular-themes` | Multi-decade structural forces |
| Supply chain reshoring and friend-shoring | `great-power-dynamics` first, then `energy-security` | Power dynamics drive the reshoring, energy constraints shape where it lands |
| Energy transition geopolitics (e.g., critical mineral competition) | `energy-security` first, then `great-power-dynamics` | Understand the resource, then the competition for it |
| "How does geopolitics affect my portfolio?" (vague) | All three, in curriculum order | Needs holistic assessment |

### Multi-Skill Questions

Some questions need more than one skill. Load them in this priority:
1. `great-power-dynamics` — understand the state-level power structure first
2. `energy-security` — layer in resource and energy constraints
3. `secular-themes` — contextualize within multi-decade structural forces

This order ensures power realities constrain energy analysis, and both constrain secular theme evaluation — not the reverse.

## Curriculum Order

For learning or progressive loading:

1. **Great Power Dynamics** (foundation) — Who has power, who wants it, and how they compete. Without this, energy and secular analysis float without anchor.
2. **Energy Security** (application) — How energy resources constrain and enable geopolitical strategies. Builds on power dynamics.
3. **Secular Themes** (integration) — How multi-decade forces reshape the playing field. Most effective when you understand the power and resource context.

### Level Progression
- **Foundational**: All three current skills are foundational level
- **Intermediate**: (not yet built) Sanctions analysis, trade policy modeling, commodity cycles
- **Advanced**: (not yet built) Scenario planning, geopolitical risk quantification, wargaming

## Conflict Resolution

When child skills give contradictory guidance:

| Conflict | Resolution | Reason |
|----------|-----------|--------|
| Great-power analysis says "avoid China exposure" but secular-themes says "China demographics priced in" | Great-power dynamics wins | Political risk can destroy value overnight; demographics are slow-moving |
| Energy-security says "go long nuclear" but secular-themes says "sovereign debt constrains energy subsidies" | Context-dependent — assess timeline | Nuclear is a 10-year build; debt pressure is nearer-term. Match to investment horizon |
| Great-power dynamics says "friend-shore to India" but energy-security says "India's grid can't support manufacturing scale" | Energy-security wins on feasibility | You can have the geopolitical will but not the infrastructure reality |

**General rule**: When in doubt, hard constraints (physics, infrastructure, political red lines) override narrative and trend analysis. Reality > story.

## Scope Boundaries

**This director handles**: All questions about how geopolitical forces, energy systems, and multi-decade structural changes affect investment positioning — country risk, supply chain exposure, thematic investing, macro overlay.

**Escalate to the orchestrator when**:
- The question requires portfolio construction or asset allocation (needs quantitative skills)
- The question involves company-specific fundamental analysis
- The question spans multiple investing subdomains (e.g., "build me a geopolitically hedged portfolio")
- The user needs a specialist agent launched (only orchestrators launch agents)