---
name: jeg-topic-selection
description: Use when deciding whether a project is a first-order economic-growth question that fits the Journal of Economic Growth (JEG) — a specialist Springer Nature outlet for growth and dynamic macroeconomics, not a general-interest journal. Screens scope, ambition, and theory/empirics fit before writing.
---

# Topic Selection (jeg-topic-selection)

## When to trigger

- Before committing months to a project you hope to send to JEG
- When unsure whether your question is "growth enough" for a specialist outlet
- When a referee or colleague has said the paper "isn't really about growth"

## The JEG scope gate

JEG publishes theoretical and empirical research in **economic growth and dynamic macroeconomics**. A paper fits when the *dependent phenomenon is long-run growth, development, or the dynamics that drive them*, not when growth is a side outcome. In-scope cores include:

- Neoclassical and **endogenous growth** (R&D, ideas, increasing returns)
- **Human capital** accumulation, education, and skill formation
- **Fertility**, the demographic transition, and unified growth theory
- **Trade and growth**; **financial development** and growth
- **Migration**, technological change, and structural transformation
- The **political economy of growth** and institutions; OLG models

## Calibrate ambition to a specialist (not general-interest) outlet

JEG does not require a paper to interest all of economics, but it does demand a **first-order growth question** answered with either real theoretical novelty or credible empirics. Ask:

- **Is the question about a growth mechanism**, not a within-field micro estimate that merely mentions growth?
- **Does it speak to a live debate** in the growth literature (e.g., the sources of cross-country income differences, the demographic transition, the institutions-vs-geography-vs-human-capital triangle)?
- **Theory papers**: is there a new mechanism, a more general result, or a resolution of a tension in existing growth models — not a marginal parameterization?
- **Empirical papers**: is the variation informative about a growth-relevant causal channel, and is the sample (often cross-country or long-run panel) suited to the claim?

## Decision aids

- Could the abstract's main sentence start "We show that [growth/development outcome] is driven by..."? If not, the growth content may be incidental.
- Is the natural home a *field* growth/development outlet rather than a general-interest top-5? JEG sits precisely in that specialist slot — lean into the growth mechanism.

## Anti-patterns

- Pitching a labor/finance/IO paper that touches GDP as a "growth" paper.
- A theory paper that re-derives a known steady state with a cosmetic tweak.
- A cross-country regression with no defensible growth mechanism behind the correlation.
- Assuming general-interest novelty is required — it is not; growth-field first-order-ness is.

## Borderline-fit triage

| Candidate project | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Microcredit RCT with household-income effects | wrong venue | short-run, partial-equilibrium; no growth mechanism at stake |
| Historical plough adoption → gender norms → development | strong fit | deep determinant with a cultural-transmission mechanism |
| Schooling reform and 30-year regional growth | reframe | fits if the human-capital-to-growth channel is the object, not the reform |
| Optimal capital-tax dynamics in an OLG model | fit | dynamic-macro core, provided transition implications lead |
| Firm-level productivity dispersion in one sector | wrong venue | aggregate growth content incidental to the question |

## Worked vignette — stress-testing a deep-determinants idea

Idea: "Regions with historical irrigation agriculture developed more hierarchical institutions and grow slower today." Gate checks (illustrative): the dependent phenomenon is comparative development — pass. Live debate — joins the geography-versus-institutions exchange — pass. Mechanism — the chain irrigation → coordination demands → state centralization → modern factor allocation must be *evidenced*, not narrated; plan intermediate-outcome data now. Feasibility — requires geocoded historical agronomy data plus a credible plan for Conley inference and an exclusion-restriction defense *before* the first regression is run. Verdict: strong fit conditional on the mechanism evidence — schedule that evidence as a main exhibit from day one, or the project decays into another unpublishable long-run correlation.

## Output format

```
【Question】one sentence (growth/dynamic-macro phenomenon as the object)
【In-scope core】endogenous growth / human capital / fertility / trade / institutions / ...
【Paper type】theory / empirical / quantitative
【First-order?】yes/no + the debate it joins
【Verdict】strong fit / reframe / wrong venue
【Next skill】jeg-literature-positioning
```