---
name: longbridge-dcf
description: |
  Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model built from Longbridge financial data — historical FCF (operating cash flow minus capex), projected FCF with growth assumptions, WACC (Beta / risk-free rate / equity risk premium), terminal value, intrinsic value vs current price, and margin of safety. Triggers: "DCF", "现金流折现", "内在价值", "自由现金流", "WACC", "折现率", "安全边际", "终值", "现金流贴现", "現金流折現", "內在價值", "自由現金流", "折現率", "安全邊際", "DCF model", "discounted cash flow", "intrinsic value", "free cash flow", "WACC", "discount rate", "margin of safety", "terminal value", "Gordon growth".
license: MIT
metadata:
  author: longbridge
  version: "1.0.0"
  risk_level: read_only
  requires_login: false
  default_install: true
  requires_mcp: false
  tier: read
---

# longbridge-dcf

Build a step-by-step DCF model for any listed company using Longbridge financial data, arriving at an intrinsic value per share and margin of safety versus the current price.

> **Response language**: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.

## When to use

- *"帮我做 AAPL 的 DCF 估值"*, *"run a DCF on AAPL"*, *"幫我做 AAPL 的 DCF 估值"*
- *"NVDA 内在价值是多少"*, *"what is NVDA's intrinsic value"*
- *"用现金流折现算一下茅台"*, *"discounted cash flow for Maotai"*
- *"WACC 怎么计算"*, *"how do I calculate WACC for this stock"*
- *"给我算安全边际"*, *"margin of safety vs intrinsic value"*

For valuation multiples (PE/PB/EV-EBITDA), use `longbridge-valuation`. For methodology overview, use `longbridge-valuation-methodology`.

## Workflow

### Step 1 — Fetch raw financial data

```bash
# Cash flow statement (FCF inputs)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --format json

# Income statement (revenue growth, margins)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json

# Beta and market cap for WACC
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
```

Run `longbridge financial-report --help` and `longbridge calc-index --help` to verify available flags.

### Step 2 — Calculate historical FCF

`FCF = Operating Cash Flow − Capital Expenditure`

Extract the last 3–5 years of operating cash flow and capex from the CF statement. Compute FCF for each year and derive the compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

### Step 3 — Project FCF

Use a two-stage model:
- **Stage 1 (years 1–5)**: Apply an analyst-estimated or CAGR-derived growth rate. Ask the user if they want a bull / base / bear case.
- **Stage 2 (terminal)**: Apply a long-run growth rate `g` (default: GDP growth rate of the company's primary market, typically 2–4%).

### Step 4 — Estimate WACC

```
WACC = Wd × Rd × (1 − t) + We × Re
Re  = Rf + β × ERP
```

| Input | Source |
|---|---|
| Beta (β) | `longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json` |
| Risk-free rate (Rf) | 10-year government bond yield of primary market (US: ~4.2%, CN: ~2.3%, HK: ~4.0%) |
| Equity risk premium (ERP) | Damodaran country ERP (US: ~4.6%, CN: ~7%, HK: ~6%) |
| Debt ratio (Wd) | From balance sheet (total debt / (total debt + market cap)) |
| Cost of debt (Rd) | Interest expense / total debt from IS + BS |
| Tax rate (t) | Effective tax rate from IS |

### Step 5 — Terminal value

`TV = FCF₅ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)`

Common alternative: exit multiple method — apply an EV/EBITDA multiple consistent with mature peers.

### Step 6 — Intrinsic value

1. Discount each projected FCF to present value at WACC.
2. Discount terminal value to present value.
3. Sum all PVs → Enterprise Value.
4. Subtract net debt; add cash → Equity Value.
5. Divide by diluted shares outstanding → Intrinsic Value per Share.

### Step 7 — Margin of safety

`Margin of Safety = (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) / Intrinsic Value × 100%`

Positive = undervalued; negative = overvalued. Show sensitivity table for ±1% WACC and ±1% terminal growth.

## CLI

```bash
longbridge financial-report --help
longbridge calc-index --help

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
```

## Output

Present results as:
1. Historical FCF table (3–5 years).
2. Projected FCF table (5 years, 3 scenarios if requested).
3. WACC components breakdown.
4. Intrinsic value per share.
5. Margin of safety vs current price.
6. Sensitivity matrix (WACC × terminal growth rate).
7. Key assumptions and caveats.

Always include a disclaimer: DCF is highly sensitive to assumptions; treat output as a range, not a precise target.

## Error handling

| Situation | 简体回复 | 繁體回覆 | English reply |
|---|---|---|---|
| `command not found: longbridge` | 请安装 longbridge-terminal 或检查 MCP 配置。 | 請安裝 longbridge-terminal 或檢查 MCP 配置。 | Install longbridge-terminal or check MCP config. |
| stderr: `not logged in` | 请运行 `longbridge auth login`。 | 請執行 `longbridge auth login`。 | Run `longbridge auth login`. |
| No CF data available | 该标的暂无现金流数据，可能是上市不足三年或非标准财报。 | 該標的暫無現金流數據，可能是上市不足三年。 | No cash flow data; the company may be too recently listed or use non-standard reporting. |
| Negative FCF history | 历史 FCF 为负，DCF 模型需用户提供未来盈利假设。 | 歷史 FCF 為負，需用戶提供未來盈利假設。 | Historical FCF is negative; DCF requires user-supplied future profitability assumptions. |

## Related skills

- `longbridge-valuation-methodology` — method selection guide
- `longbridge-valuation` — current PE/PB/EV-EBITDA snapshot
- `longbridge-fundamental` — revenue / EPS / margin KPIs
- `longbridge-financial-report` — detailed financial statements

## File layout

```
skills/longbridge-dcf/
└── SKILL.md
```