--- name: market-entry-analysis description: "Use when sequencing market entry — geo / segment / vertical, beachhead selection, regulatory-delta. Triggers on 'should we enter market X', 'which segment first'." status: active tier: senior source: package domain: process context_spine: [customer-segment, regulatory-regime, product] workspaces: - founder packs: - founder-strategy lifecycle: active trust: level: core confidence: high human_review_required: false install: default: true removable: true --- # market-entry-analysis ## When to use - A new market is on the table — geographic (EU, US, APAC), segment (SMB → mid-market → enterprise), or vertical (healthcare, fintech, manufacturing) — and the question is whether to enter, where to start, and in what sequence. - A current market is saturating and the question is which adjacent market unlocks the next growth window. - A regulatory shift opens or closes a market; the question is whether the new constraint changes the entry case. Do NOT use for build-vs-buy decisions on capability gaps (route to `build-buy-partner` (P1)), positioning narrative (route to `competitive-positioning` (P3); this skill composes P3), or per-customer economics within the entered market (route to `unit-economics-modeling` (O1)). ## Cognition cluster - **Mental model 23 — Beachhead.** Pick a single segment / geo / vertical where the constraints favour winning, then expand from a position of strength. Trying to enter "the whole market" with no beachhead is the canonical failure pattern. See [`mental-models.md`](../../../docs/contracts/mental-models.md) § 23. - **Mental model 21 — Second-order thinking.** Entry costs (sales motion, regulatory compliance, segment-specific support) compound across markets. Reading entry as *"just open the door"* misses the second-order shape of multi-market operations. See `mental-models.md` § 21. - **Mental model 16 — Leading vs lagging.** Revenue from new market is lagging; **segment-specific pipeline coverage** + **win rates against incumbents in target segment** are leading. Reading only lagging signals = entering markets that already won't work. See `mental-models.md` § 16. - **Context-spine — customer-segment + regulatory-regime + product.** Read **customer-segment** for which buyer cohort the entry targets; **regulatory-regime** for the compliance delta (often the load-bearing cost in geo expansion); **product** for what's GA-shippable in the target market without re-platforming. ## Procedure ### Step 0: Frame the entry axis Pick **one** of three axes; do not mix: 1. **Geo** — new region (US → EU, EU → APAC). Load-bearing constraint = regulatory-regime delta. 2. **Segment** — new buyer cohort (SMB → mid-market → enterprise). Load-bearing constraint = sales-motion shift. 3. **Vertical** — new industry (horizontal → healthcare). Load-bearing constraint = domain knowledge + segment-specific integrations. Mixing axes ("enter European healthcare enterprise") = three entries simultaneously. The correct framing is to pick one axis at a time and sequence the others. ### Step 1: Select the beachhead Within the chosen axis, score 3–5 candidate beachheads on: 1. **Constraint favourability** — does the segment / geo's constraint shape favour us? (e.g. for a self-serve product, SMB favours; enterprise penalises). 2. **Reference-customer reachability** — can we land 3–5 named reference customers in the next two windows? 3. **Regulatory delta** — compliance cost to operate (read `regulatory-regime` slot; e.g. EU + B2C + processing PII = GDPR-floor; EU + B2B + no PII = thin delta). 4. **Expansion path** — does winning this beachhead unlock the adjacent ones, or is it a dead end? The beachhead is rarely the largest segment; it's the segment where we win cleanly and from which adjacent segments become accessible. ### Step 2: Inspect the entry cost Three concrete cost categories — each named, not estimated: 1. **Sales motion** — does the existing motion translate? (Self-serve → enterprise requires inside-sales + AE buildout; SMB → mid-market requires AE specialisation.) 2. **Product delta** — what's missing for the target segment? (Compliance certs, SSO, audit logs, locale support, segment-specific integrations.) 3. **Operating cost** — entity setup, tax, legal, segment-specific support. Geo entries add a 3–6 month operating-readiness window. Total entry cost = these three. Compare against `runway-frame.md` (O3) for whether the band has headroom. ### Step 3: Inversion — name the failure mode For the chosen beachhead, write the 18-month failure mode: 1. *"We entered and the incumbent's playbook neutralised us"* — incumbent's segment-specific advantage held. 2. *"We entered and the sales motion didn't translate"* — assumed motion (self-serve) didn't work in the segment (enterprise). 3. *"We entered and the regulatory cost ate the unit economics"* — compliance delta was load-bearing and under-estimated. If the failure mode has no mitigation, the entry is not ready. Sit with it. ### Step 4: Sequence the expansion Beachhead = first move. Map the next 2–3 expansion moves explicitly: 1. *"Win beachhead → unlock adjacent segment X (same motion, larger TAM) → unlock adjacent geo Y (same segment, regulatory delta manageable)."* 2. *"Win beachhead → unlock co-sell with vendor Z → unlock vertical W."* Un-sequenced beachhead wins are dead-ends. The sequence is the long-game; the beachhead is just the first move. ### Step 5: Validate the entry case before emitting Before emitting the entry plan, verify three things: 1. **Beachhead defensibility** — confirm the chosen beachhead scores higher than the runner-up on at least two of the four Step-1 dimensions; if it ties or wins on one only, the choice is brittle and must be re-run. 2. **Entry cost vs runway band** — check that the Step-2 entry cost lands inside the `runway-frame.md` (O3) band; if it doesn't, the entry is not yet financeable and must be deferred or staged. 3. **Failure-mode mitigation** — assert that the Step-3 failure mode has a named mitigation; an un-mitigated failure mode means the analysis is incomplete. All three must pass. If any fails, the entry plan is not ready to emit; return to the failing step. ### Step 6: Emit the entry plan Produce the entry plan artifact. P2 composes P3 (`competitive-positioning`) for the narrative against incumbents in the target segment. ## Related Skills **WHEN to use this** - Sequencing market entry across geo / segment / vertical axes. - Choosing the beachhead within a chosen entry axis. **WHEN NOT to use this** - Build-vs-buy capability decisions — route to [`build-buy-partner`](../build-buy-partner/SKILL.md) (P1). - Positioning narrative against incumbents — route to [`competitive-positioning`](../competitive-positioning/SKILL.md) (P3); this skill composes P3. - Per-customer economics in the target market — route to [`unit-economics-modeling`](../unit-economics-modeling/SKILL.md) (O1). - Channel / funnel design for the entry — route to Wing-3 [`funnel-analysis`](../funnel-analysis/SKILL.md) and [`content-funnel-design`](../content-funnel-design/SKILL.md). ## When the agent should load this - "Should we enter the EU market?" - "Which segment do we go to next — mid-market or enterprise?" - "Pick the beachhead for our vertical expansion." - "Wo greifen wir als erstes an?" ## Output 1. **`entry-axis-frame.md`** — chosen axis (geo / segment / vertical), why this axis first, what's deferred. 2. **`beachhead-scorecard.md`** — 3–5 candidate beachheads scored on the four Step-1 dimensions; named winner with reasoning. 3. **`entry-cost-table.md`** — sales-motion delta, product delta, operating cost; compared against runway band. 4. **`expansion-sequence.md`** — beachhead + next 2–3 moves, with the unlock-mechanism named per move. ## Gotcha - "Enter the European enterprise healthcare market" mixes three axes. Pick one. - The largest segment is rarely the right beachhead; the segment where constraints favour us is. - Geo regulatory delta is the most under-estimated cost. Budget the high-end of the band for compliance. - Beachhead win without sequenced expansion = isolated revenue stream that never compounds. ## Do NOT - Do NOT mix entry axes — sequence them. - Do NOT pick a beachhead without a named 18-month failure mode + mitigation. - Do NOT skip the expansion sequence — the beachhead's value is which next moves it unlocks. ## Runnable example Horizontal SaaS, US-only, mid-market, considering EU expansion. - Step 0 — axis = geo (EU). Defer segment (stay mid-market) and vertical (stay horizontal). - Step 1 — candidate beachheads: DACH, Nordics, UK, Benelux. Scored: UK wins on constraint-favour (English-language sales motion translates, common-law contract familiarity), reference-reachability (5 mid-market UK customers reachable via existing channels), regulatory delta (UK-GDPR ≈ EU-GDPR floor with thinner data-residency requirement), expansion path (UK → Benelux → DACH). - Step 2 — Sales motion: existing AE motion translates to UK. Product delta: data-residency in EU (12 weeks). Operating cost: UK Ltd entity, VAT registration ≈ 3 months. - Step 3 — failure mode: "incumbent's UK channel partnerships locked us out of mid-market." Mitigation: direct-AE motion + content-led pipeline. - Step 4 — sequence: UK (beachhead) → Benelux (same motion, thin regulatory delta) → DACH (German-speaking sales hire required, larger TAM). - Step 5 — emit entry plan + compose P3 for UK-vs-incumbents positioning.