--- name: nft-analysis description: Analyze NFT projects for investment decisions — evaluate fundamentals, identify red flags, assess risk, and provide buy/hold/avoid recommendations triggers: - analyze NFT project - should I buy this NFT - NFT investment analysis - is this NFT a good investment - NFT project evaluation - NFT due diligence origin: unknown source_license: see upstream language: en --- # NFT Project Analysis Comprehensive framework for evaluating NFT projects and providing investment recommendations. Focuses on fundamentals, red flags, and risk assessment rather than speculation. ## When to Use - User asks to analyze an NFT collection - User asks "should I buy this NFT?" - User wants to evaluate NFT project health - User asks about NFT price trends or investment potential ## Analysis Framework ### 1. Data Collection **Primary sources:** - OpenSea (floor price, volume, holders, sales) - Blur, LooksRare, Rarible (alternative marketplaces) - Twitter (community size, engagement, updates) - Discord/Telegram (community activity, team presence) - Etherscan/blockchain explorer (contract, holder distribution) - Project website (roadmap, team, utility) **Key metrics:** - Floor price (current + historical) - Trading volume (24h, 7d, 30d) - Total volume (all-time) - Unique holders - Total supply - Recent sales activity - **Listed count** (how many NFTs are listed for sale) - **Marketplace presence** (which platforms list the collection) - Social media followers - Community engagement **CRITICAL: Check marketplace liquidity FIRST** - Verify NFT is actually listed on marketplaces (OpenSea, Blur, etc.) - Check on-chain holders count (0 holders = NFTs stuck in contract) - Verify contract is verified on block explorer - If zero marketplace presence + zero holders = DEAD MARKET (instant avoid) ### 2. Chart Pattern Recognition **Healthy patterns:** - Gradual uptrend with consolidation zones - Higher lows, higher highs - Multiple horizontal support levels - Steady volume growth - Low volatility **Death patterns:** - Pump & dump (sharp spike → crash) - Death spiral (continuous decline, no support) - Extreme volatility (0 → peak → 0 → peak → 0) - Declining volume - No consolidation zones **Example death chart:** ``` Launch: 0.1 ETH (accumulation) Month 2: 0.5 ETH (PUMP — 5x in days) Month 3: 0.0 ETH (CRASH — rug pull) Month 4: 0.4 ETH (dead cat bounce) Month 5: 0.003 ETH (death spiral) Pattern: TEXTBOOK RUG PULL ``` ### 3. Red Flags Checklist **Critical red flags (avoid immediately):** - ❌ **Zero marketplace listings** (not on OpenSea/Blur/any platform) - ❌ **Zero holders on-chain** (NFTs stuck in minting contract) - ❌ **Unverified contract** (can't verify legitimacy) - ❌ Floor price < $10 (death territory) - ❌ No Discord/Telegram (dead community) - ❌ Zero market cap - ❌ No development updates in 3+ months - ❌ Wash trading (high sale count, tiny values) - ❌ No utility (pure collectible) - ❌ Team anonymous + no roadmap - ❌ Pump & dump chart pattern - ❌ 90%+ decline from peak - ❌ No recovery catalysts **Warning signs (proceed with caution):** - ⚠️ Small community (< 5k Discord members) - ⚠️ Low liquidity (< 10 ETH daily volume) - ⚠️ High holder concentration (top 10 hold > 50%) - ⚠️ Declining social engagement - ⚠️ Delayed roadmap milestones - ⚠️ No partnerships or integrations **Positive signals:** - ✅ Active Discord (10k+ members, daily activity) - ✅ Regular development updates - ✅ Real utility (gaming, metaverse, membership) - ✅ Partnerships with established projects - ✅ Doxxed team with track record - ✅ Healthy chart (uptrend, support levels) - ✅ Growing community - ✅ Blue-chip status (BAYC, Azuki, Pudgy Penguins) ### 4. Risk Assessment **Calculate probability-weighted expected value:** ``` Scenarios: 1. Best case (5-10%): 3-10x gain 2. Most likely (70-80%): -50% to +50% 3. Worst case (10-20%): -90% to -100% Expected value = (P1 × Gain1) + (P2 × Gain2) + (P3 × Loss3) If EV < 0: AVOID If EV > 0 but high risk: CAUTION If EV > 0 and low risk: CONSIDER ``` **Risk levels:** - **EXTREME (10/10):** Death spiral, abandoned project, rug pull signs - **HIGH (7-9/10):** Declining metrics, weak community, no utility - **MEDIUM (4-6/10):** Mixed signals, execution risk, market dependent - **LOW (1-3/10):** Blue-chip, strong fundamentals, active development ### 5. Comparison with Similar Projects **Compare against:** - Blue-chip NFTs (BAYC, Azuki, Doodles) - Same category (PFP, gaming, metaverse) - Similar launch date - Similar supply size **Metrics to compare:** - Floor price trajectory - Volume trends - Community size - Development activity - Utility/roadmap execution ## Recommendation Framework ### BUY (Serok) **Criteria:** - ✅ All fundamentals strong - ✅ Active community (10k+ Discord) - ✅ Regular development updates - ✅ Real utility or roadmap - ✅ Healthy chart (uptrend, support) - ✅ Expected value > 0 - ✅ Risk level: LOW to MEDIUM **Example:** Blue-chip NFT during temporary dip ### HOLD **Criteria:** - 🟡 Mixed signals - 🟡 Some red flags but not critical - 🟡 Execution risk - 🟡 Expected value ≈ 0 - 🟡 Risk level: MEDIUM **Example:** Established project with delayed roadmap ### AVOID (Jangan Serok) **Criteria:** - ❌ Multiple critical red flags - ❌ Death spiral chart pattern - ❌ Dead community - ❌ No development - ❌ Expected value < 0 - ❌ Risk level: HIGH to EXTREME **Example:** Project with $8 floor, no Discord, 95% down from peak ## Response Format **Structure:** 1. Executive summary (BUY/HOLD/AVOID + one-line reason) 2. Current metrics (floor, volume, holders) 3. Chart analysis (pattern recognition) 4. Red flags and positive signals 5. Risk assessment (probability-weighted) 6. Comparison with similar projects 7. Final recommendation with reasoning **Tone:** - Direct and honest (don't sugarcoat bad projects) - Data-driven (cite specific metrics) - Risk-aware (acknowledge uncertainty) - Actionable (clear buy/hold/avoid) - **Lead with risk assessment** — users want to know "is this high risk?" upfront, not buried in analysis - **Label risk level prominently** — use visual markers (🔴 EXTREME, 🟡 MEDIUM, 🟢 LOW) early in response **For Indonesian users:** - Use "serok" for "buy the dip" - Use "jangan serok" for "don't buy" - Keep technical terms in English (floor price, volume, etc.) - Explain reasoning clearly - When user says "mantep ini untuk high risk" — they appreciate direct risk labeling and want it upfront, not buried ## Pitfalls - **Don't rely on hype** — community excitement ≠ good investment - **Don't ignore red flags** — one critical red flag can sink a project - **Don't assume recovery** — death spirals rarely reverse - **Don't compare apples to oranges** — compare within same category - **Don't forget opportunity cost** — even if project survives, better options may exist ## Verification - Cross-reference data from multiple sources (OpenSea + Twitter + Discord) - Check contract on Etherscan for holder distribution - Look for wash trading (same wallets trading back and forth) - Verify team claims (partnerships, roadmap milestones) ## Example Analysis See `references/numismatis-nft-analysis.md` for full example of death spiral project analysis. See `references/ardinals-dead-market.md` for agent-only NFT with zero marketplace liquidity (dead market despite active minting). See `references/cloudflare-blocked-workflow.md` for workflow when OpenSea blocks direct access (Cloudflare protection).