---
name: opportunity-assessment
description: "Validate a Salla product idea with market sizing, merchant demand estimation, platform feasibility, and strategic fit. Returns a go/no-go recommendation. Slash command: /opportunity-assessment"
---

# Opportunity Assessment — Salla Platform

You validate product ideas before a team commits to building them. You ask the hard questions: How many Salla merchants actually have this problem? Is this a top-3 priority for them? Does Salla have a right to win here? You provide a clear recommendation, not a balanced summary that says nothing.

---

## Initialization

1. Read `knowledge/pm-context.md` for pillar context, OKRs, and merchant segment focus.
2. Read `knowledge/platform-pillars.md` for platform context and known gaps.
3. Read `knowledge/okrs.md` for current strategic priorities.
4. Read `knowledge/opportunities/` for past assessments to avoid duplicating work.
5. Read `knowledge/competitors/` for competitive context if available.

---

## Step 1: Understand the Idea

Ask: "What's the opportunity? Give me a one-paragraph description of the problem and the rough solution direction."

Then ask:
1. "Which merchant segment(s) would this serve?"
2. "Why now — what's changed that makes this the right time?"
3. "Do you have any early merchant signals? (CS tickets, interview quotes, NPS verbatims)"

---

## Step 2: Research

Use available tools to gather evidence:

**WebSearch** for:
- Market data: "[Saudi e-commerce] [problem area] market size"
- Competitor solutions: "How do Zid / Shopify handle [this problem]?"
- Arabic merchant communities discussing this problem

**knowledge/** files:
- Relevant merchant feedback from `knowledge/feedback/`
- Relevant personas from `knowledge/personas/`
- Relevant research from `knowledge/research/`

---

## Step 3: Assessment Framework

Evaluate the opportunity on six dimensions:

### 1. Merchant Problem Validity
- How many Salla merchants have this problem?
- How often do they encounter it?
- How severe is it? (Losing sales / Wasting time / Minor inconvenience)
- Evidence: CS tickets, NPS verbatims, interviews, usage data

### 2. Market Sizing (for Salla's platform)
- **Total Addressable Merchants**: How many Salla merchants could benefit?
- **Serviceable Merchants**: Of those, how many would actually use this feature?
- **Impact per Merchant**: What's the expected uplift per merchant? (GMV, time saved, NPS)
- **Total Platform Impact**: Estimated GMV or revenue impact if fully adopted

### 3. Strategic Fit
- Does this align with current OKRs? Which KR does it move?
- Does this reinforce or undermine Salla's strategic position vs. competitors?
- Does this strengthen the platform ecosystem (App Store, pillar integration)?
- Does this serve Salla's fastest-growing merchant segment?

### 4. Platform Feasibility
- Does Salla have the infrastructure to build this?
- Cross-pillar dependencies: which other pillars are required?
- Compliance requirements: ZATCA, SAMA, PDPL — how complex?
- Arabic/RTL and mobile-first complexity
- Build vs. buy vs. enable-via-App-Store decision

### 5. Competitive Position
- Do Zid or Shopify already offer this? How well?
- Can Salla build a meaningfully better version given its Saudi/Arabic-first context?
- Is this a must-have to remain competitive, or a differentiator?

### 6. Risks & Assumptions
- What is the single most important assumption this opportunity rests on?
- What would need to be true for this to succeed?
- What could go wrong?

---

## Step 4: Generate the Assessment

```markdown
# Opportunity Assessment: [Opportunity Title]

**Pillar:** [Pillar]
**Author:** [PM name]
**Date:** [Today]
**Merchant segment:** [Primary segment]
**Assessment status:** [Draft / Reviewed / Decided]

---

## The Opportunity in One Paragraph

[2-3 sentences. What problem, for which merchants, why Salla is positioned to solve it. This is the elevator pitch for your CPO.]

---

## Recommendation

> **[GO / NO-GO / EXPLORE FURTHER]**
>
> [One sentence justification. Be direct. "Go because the merchant evidence is strong and it directly moves KR 2.3." or "No-go because Zid already has this and our differentiation angle is unclear."]

---

## Problem Validity

**Confidence:** [High / Medium / Low]

| Evidence | Source | Strength |
|---------|--------|---------|
| [CS ticket theme: X tickets/month about this] | CS data | [Strong/Medium/Weak] |
| [NPS verbatim: "merchants ask for this frequently"] | NPS survey | [Strong/Medium/Weak] |
| [Interview: "5/6 merchants mentioned this as top 3 pain"] | Merchant interviews | [Strong/Medium/Weak] |

**Problem severity for merchants:** [Losing sales / Wasting significant time / Minor friction]

**Most powerful evidence:**
> [Best quote or data point supporting that this is a real, important problem]

---

## Market Sizing

| Metric | Estimate | Basis |
|--------|---------|-------|
| Total Addressable Merchants | [N] | [How estimated] |
| Serviceable Merchants | [N] | [Subset criteria] |
| Adoption rate estimate | [X%] | [Comparable feature adoption] |
| Impact per merchant (GMV/NPS) | [Value] | [How estimated] |
| **Total Platform Impact** | [SAR / NPS pts] | |

**Confidence in these estimates:** [High / Medium / Low — and why]

---

## Strategic Fit

| Dimension | Assessment |
|-----------|-----------|
| OKR alignment | [Which KR this moves, directly or indirectly] |
| Salla's right to win | [Why Salla can build this better than generic platforms — Arabic-first advantage? Local market knowledge? Platform integration?] |
| Competitive necessity | [Table stakes / Differentiator / Nice-to-have] |
| Ecosystem impact | [Does this strengthen the App Store? Enable partners?] |
| Merchant segment priority | [Is this segment Salla's growth priority?] |

---

## Platform Feasibility

**Build complexity:** [Low (1-2 sprints) / Medium (1 quarter) / High (2+ quarters)]

**Cross-pillar dependencies:**
| Pillar | Dependency | Status |
|--------|-----------|--------|
| [Pillar] | [What's needed] | [Available / Planned / Not available] |

**Compliance requirements:**
- ZATCA: [Not applicable / Minor review / Major gate]
- SAMA: [Not applicable / Minor review / Major gate]
- PDPL: [Not applicable / Privacy review needed]

**Arabic / Mobile complexity:** [Low / Medium / High — explain if High]

**Build vs. App Store decision:**
[Should Salla build this natively, or should this be an App Store opportunity for a partner to build?]

---

## Competitive Analysis

| Competitor | Has this? | How good? | Salla's differentiation |
|-----------|-----------|-----------|------------------------|
| Zid | [Yes/No/Partial] | [High/Med/Low] | [How Salla would be better] |
| Shopify | [Yes/No/Partial] | [High/Med/Low] | [How Salla would be better] |
| Youcan | [Yes/No/Partial] | [High/Med/Low] | |

**Competitive conclusion:** [Must-have to stay competitive / Opportunity to differentiate / Neither Zid nor Shopify have this — why not? (Often a signal)]

---

## Key Assumptions

The most critical assumptions this opportunity rests on:

1. **[Assumption]** — Confidence: [High/Med/Low] — How to validate: [Method]
2. **[Assumption]** — Confidence: [High/Med/Low] — How to validate: [Method]
3. **[Assumption]** — Confidence: [High/Med/Low] — How to validate: [Method]

**The single assumption most likely to kill this opportunity if wrong:**
[Name it. This is the first thing to test before committing.]

---

## Risks

| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-----------|--------|-----------|
| [Risk] | High/Med/Low | High/Med/Low | [Mitigation approach] |
| [Compliance risk] | | | |
| [Competitive risk] | | | |

---

## Recommended Next Steps

If GO:
1. [Specific action — e.g., "Run `/write-prd` for v1 spec"]
2. [Validation needed before full commitment — e.g., "Validate pricing assumption with 5 merchant interviews"]

If NO-GO:
1. [Document reason and criteria for revisiting]
2. [Identify if any part of this could be addressed as an App Store opportunity instead]

If EXPLORE FURTHER:
1. [Specific research needed to make the GO/NO-GO decision]
2. [Deadline for decision — don't leave in purgatory]
```

Write to: `knowledge/opportunities/opportunity-[slug]-[date].md`