--- name: pkedge description: "Monitor Polymarket prediction markets, spot mispricings between crowd probabilities and real-world evidence, track whale positioning from the top-50 leaderboard wallets, and detect fresh wallet insider signals. Supports four modes: SCAN (daily digest of flagged markets), DEEP DIVE (full single-market analysis with web search evidence), WHALE WATCH (consensus detection across top trader positions), and INSIDER WATCH (fresh wallet large-position detection)." homepage: https://polymarket.com --- # PKEdge — Polymarket Intelligence Skill ## Overview PKEdge is an OpenClaw skill that monitors Polymarket prediction markets, spots mispricings between crowd probabilities and real-world evidence, tracks whale positioning from top-50 leaderboard wallets, and detects fresh wallet insider signals. It operates in four modes: SCAN, DEEP DIVE, WHALE WATCH, and INSIDER WATCH. **Intel only. Never recommends trading. Always appends "Not financial advice. DYOR."** **Schedule:** - 8:00 AM ET — Daily SCAN digest (Trader + Free channels) - 8:05 AM ET — Morning Whale Watch, 48h lookback (Trader only) - 8:10 AM ET — Morning Insider Watch, 48h lookback (Trader only) - 4:00 PM ET — Afternoon Whale Watch, 24h lookback (Trader only) - 4:05 PM ET — Afternoon Insider Watch, 24h lookback (Trader only) - Every 30 min — Real-time consensus alert when 3+ whales enter the same market - Every 30 min — Real-time insider alert when fresh wallet drops >$50K on one market --- ## Install 1. `cd` into the skill folder and run `npm install` 2. Create a `.env` file with your Telegram credentials: - `PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_FREE` — bot token for the free channel - `PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_FREE` — chat ID for the free channel - `PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_TRADER` — bot token for the trader channel - `PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_TRADER` — chat ID for the trader channel 3. Run `node cron.js` to start scheduled jobs, or configure launchd to run on boot --- ## Trigger Phrases Claude activates this skill when the user says anything matching these patterns: ### SCAN mode - "pkedge scan" - "run the pkedge scan" - "prediction market scan" - "polymarket scan" - "what markets are flagged today" - "pkedge morning digest" ### DEEP DIVE mode - "pkedge deep dive [question or topic]" - "analyze this market: [question]" - "pkedge analyze: [question]" - "what does pkedge think about [topic]" - "is [market question] mispriced" - "/deepdive [question]" ### WHALE WATCH mode - "pkedge whale watch" - "whale watch" - "what are the whales doing" - "polymarket whale positions" - "pkedge whales" ### INSIDER WATCH mode - "pkedge insider watch" - "insider watch" - "fresh wallet alert" - "any insider activity" - "pkedge insiders" - "suspicious wallets" - "new money polymarket" --- ## File Locations ``` ~/Projects/pkedge/ fetch.js — all Polymarket API calls (no auth required) analyze.js — scoring, flagging, conviction logic formatter.js — Telegram message templates deliver.js — sends to Telegram channels cron.js — scheduled runner ``` --- ## Mode: SCAN **Purpose:** Fetch the top 200 active Polymarket markets by volume, flag anomalies, rank them, deliver the digest. **Step-by-step:** 1. Call `fetchActiveMarkets()` from fetch.js - Returns normalized market objects with yesPrice, noPrice, volume, volume24hr, endDate - Filters to markets with >$10K all-time volume 2. Call `runScanFlags(markets)` from analyze.js - Applies 5 flags: VOLUME_SURGE, SPREAD_ANOMALY, VOLUME_SPIKE, EXTREME_LOW/HIGH, RESOLVING_SOON - Each flag carries a point value; scanScore is the sum - Returns flagged markets sorted by score descending 3. For the top 5 flagged markets, call web search on each question to check for recent news - Search: `"[market question]" news today` - Note any breaking news, resolution events, or catalysts - Add this context to the evidence for each market 4. Call `formatScanDigest(flaggedMarkets, 5)` from formatter.js for Trader channel 5. Call `formatScanPreview(flaggedMarkets[0])` from formatter.js for Free channel 6. Deliver via deliver.js `sendToTrader()` and `sendToFree()` **Output shape:** ``` 🔍 PKEdge Morning Scan — Mon, Mar 9, 2026 _5 markets flagged from top 200 by volume_ ────────────────────── 1. *Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?* 🔥 HIGH Crowd: YES 23.1% | 24h Vol: $142K | Score: 7 👀 Volume spike: 4.2x average daily volume — unusual activity ⏰ Resolves in 3.2 days ... ``` --- ## Mode: DEEP DIVE **Purpose:** Full analysis of a single market. Claude reasons over crowd probability vs. real-world evidence, assesses fair value, and outputs a structured Crowd vs. Reality report. **Step-by-step:** 1. Parse the market question from the user input 2. Call `searchMarkets(query)` from fetch.js to find the matching Polymarket market - If multiple results, pick the one with the highest volume - If zero results, tell the user no matching market was found on Polymarket 3. Fetch enriched market data: - `fetchPriceHistory(market.id, '1d')` — get price history with daily candles (note: '1d' sets candle granularity, not lookback window; the API returns available history for the market) - `fetchBookDepth(market.clobTokenIds[0])` — get order book depth (YES token) - Compute price velocity from history: (most recent price − price from ~24h prior) in percentage points 4. Call `analyzeMarket(market, bookDepth)` from analyze.js - Returns analysis object with flags, spread note, resolution note, volume note 5. Web search × 3 to gather evidence: - Search 1: `"[market question]" news [current month year]` - Search 2: `[core topic] forecast prediction [current year]` - Search 3: `[core topic] expert analysis probability` - Synthesize key findings into 3–5 bullet points (each max 1 sentence) 6. Estimate fair value: - Based on web search evidence, base rates, and any quantitative anchors found - Express as a probability range: e.g., "52–60% YES" - Use the midpoint for conviction calculation 7. Call `computeConviction(crowdPct, fairPct)` from analyze.js - Returns { delta, direction, conviction: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW, label } 8. Call `formatDeepDive(analysis, conviction, evidenceLines)` from formatter.js 9. Deliver via `sendToTrader()` (Deep Dive is Trader-only) **Output shape:** ``` 🧠 PKEdge Deep Dive _Mar 9, 2026_ ────────────────────── *Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?* CROWD PRICE YES: 23.1% | NO: 76.9% MARKET DATA ⏰ Resolves in 3.2 days 💰 All-time: $2.1M | 24h: $142K 👀 Spread: 1.2¢ (bid 0.229 / ask 0.241) ✅ Order book: DEEP ($340K within 10¢) EVIDENCE ✅ Fed funds futures pricing ~18% probability of March cut as of today ✅ Powell speech last week signaled patience — no urgency to cut ✅ February CPI came in at 2.9%, above 2% target ✅ No emergency FOMC meeting called — standard meeting format ✅ Metaculus consensus: 15-22% YES ────────────────────── PKEDGE ASSESSMENT 🔥 Conviction: HIGH Direction: NO underpriced Delta: 18 percentage points from crowd _Crowd is 18 pts away from fair value — strong signal_ `Not financial advice. DYOR. Prediction markets carry risk.` ``` --- ## Mode: WHALE WATCH **Purpose:** Monitor top-50 Polymarket traders by all-time profit for new positions. Detect consensus (3+ whales entering the same market) and fire real-time alerts. **Runs twice daily:** - **8:05 AM ET** — 48h lookback window. Catches anything that moved overnight or over the weekend. - **4:00 PM ET** — 24h lookback window. Covers the full trading day. **Step-by-step:** 1. Call `fetchLeaderboard(50)` from fetch.js - Returns top 50 wallets by all-time profit - Each entry has: address, name (if set), pnl, volume 2. Extract all wallet addresses and call `fetchMultiWalletPositions(addresses)` - This loops through all 50 wallets with a 150ms delay between calls - Returns a Map of address → positions[] 3. Call `buildWhaleReport(leaderboard, walletPositions, windowHours)` from analyze.js - Morning run (8:05 AM): pass `48` as windowHours — covers overnight + weekend - Afternoon run (4:00 PM): pass `24` as windowHours — covers the trading day - Filters to positions opened within the window with >$1K value - Detects consensus: 3+ whales in the same market - Sorts by position size and consensus count 4. Call `formatWhaleWatch(report)` from formatter.js 5. Deliver via `sendToTrader()` 6. For any consensus markets not yet alerted today: - Call `formatWhaleAlert(consensusMarket, latestPosition)` from formatter.js - Deliver as an immediate alert (separate message, not part of digest) - Mark as alerted in the dedup set **Output shape:** ``` 🐋 PKEdge Whale Watch — Mon, Mar 9, 2026 _Top 50 traders scanned | Last 24h_ ────────────────────── 🔥 CONSENSUS DETECTED (1 market) 1. *Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?* 🐋x4 whales | 💰$48K combined | Direction: *NO* _PredictWiz, 0x4f2a…1b3c, MarketMaker99 +1 more_ ────────────────────── NEW POSITIONS (6 total) 🐋 *PredictWiz* → NO _Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?_ $22K @ 77¢ | 2h ago ... ``` --- ## Mode: INSIDER WATCH **Purpose:** Detect fresh wallets placing unusually large positions — a classic signal of informed trading. Insiders often create new wallets specifically to avoid leaderboard detection. Two or more fresh wallets entering the same market within 6 hours is treated as a coordinated signal. **Fresh wallet definition:** - Wallet age < 30 days (based on first trade timestamp) - Total lifetime trade count < 20 - Single position size > $5K **Alert tiers:** - > $5K single position = 👀 WATCH (held for digest) - > $25K single position = ⚠️ ALERT (held for digest) - > $50K single position = 🚨 IMMEDIATE (fires real-time, does not wait for digest) - 2+ fresh wallets same market within 6h = 🚨 COORDINATED (fires real-time regardless of size) **Runs twice daily:** - **8:10 AM ET** — 48h lookback - **4:05 PM ET** — 24h lookback - **Every 30 min** — real-time scan for >$50K single fresh wallet drops (lower amounts held for digest) **Step-by-step:** 1. Call `fetchActiveMarkets()` — sort by 24h volume, take top 30 as scan targets 2. Call `fetchLeaderboard(50)` — build a Set of known addresses to exclude 3. For each top market, call `fetchRecentTrades(market.clobTokenIds[0], windowHours)` from fetch.js - Collect unique maker/taker addresses from trades - Filter to trades with sizeUSD > $5K - Exclude addresses in the leaderboard Set 4. For each unknown address with a qualifying trade, call `fetchWalletProfile(address)` from fetch.js - Returns { firstTradeAt, tradeCount, totalVolume } - Flag as fresh if: wallet age ≤ 30 days AND tradeCount ≤ 20 5. Call `buildInsiderReport(freshSignals, windowHours)` from analyze.js - Groups fresh wallet positions by market - Detects coordinated entries: 2+ fresh wallets same market within 6h - Scores each signal (see Scoring Reference) - Returns: { signals, coordinatedMarkets, immediateAlerts } 6. Call `formatInsiderWatch(report)` from formatter.js 7. Deliver via `sendToTrader()` 8. For IMMEDIATE-tier (>$50K) or COORDINATED signals not yet alerted today: - Call `formatInsiderAlert(signal, isCoordinated)` from formatter.js - Deliver as a real-time alert - Mark in the dedup set **Output shape — daily digest:** ``` 🕵️ PKEdge Insider Watch — Mon, Mar 9, 2026 _Unknown wallets scanned | Last 24h_ ────────────────────── 🚨 COORDINATED SIGNAL (1 market) *Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?* 🆕x2 fresh wallets | 💰$61K combined | Direction: *NO* _First two entered within 2h of each other_ Wallet: 0x7c3b…9a12 — Age: 4 days | 3 trades | $38K → NO Wallet: 0x2d1f…4e87 — Age: 11 days | 7 trades | $23K → NO ────────────────────── WATCH LIST (3 signals) 👀 *Fresh wallet — 0x9f4a…2c31* _Will Trump win the 2026 midterms?_ $8K → YES @ 41¢ | 6h ago Age: 18 days | 12 trades lifetime `Not financial advice. DYOR. Fresh wallet signals are circumstantial.` ``` **Output shape — real-time alert:** ``` 🚨 PKEdge Insider Alert _Fresh wallet just dropped big money_ *Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?* Direction: NO | Size: $38K @ 77¢ Wallet: `0x7c3b…9a12` Age: 4 days | 3 trades lifetime `Not financial advice. DYOR. Circumstantial signal only.` ``` --- ## API Reference (All Free, No Auth) | Endpoint | Purpose | |---|---| | `GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&limit=200` | Market discovery | | `GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?slug={slug}` | Single market by slug | | `GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/prices-history?market={id}&interval=1d` | Price history | | `GET https://clob.polymarket.com/book?token_id={tokenId}` | Order book | | `GET https://clob.polymarket.com/midpoint?token_id={tokenId}` | Midpoint price | | `GET https://clob.polymarket.com/bbo?token_id={tokenId}` | Best bid/offer | | `GET https://clob.polymarket.com/trades?token_id={tokenId}&limit=500` | Recent market trades (Insider Watch) | | `GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/v1/leaderboard?timePeriod=ALL&orderBy=PNL&limit=50` | Top traders | | `GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/positions?user={address}` | Wallet positions | | `GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user={address}&limit=500` | Wallet trade history + profile | --- ## Environment Variables ``` PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_FREE= PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_FREE= PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_TRADER= PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_TRADER= ``` No market data API keys needed. Polymarket APIs are fully public. --- ## Subscription Tiers | Tier | Price | What They Get | |---|---|---| | FREE EDGE | $0 | 1 market preview from daily SCAN | | WATCHER | $9/mo | Full 5-market SCAN digest, @PKEdgeBot basic (3 lookups/day) | | TRADER | $29/mo | Unlimited DEEP DIVE, WHALE WATCH, INSIDER WATCH, all real-time alerts | | QUANT | $99/mo | Raw scoring API, Discord quant channel, historical accuracy log | --- ## Scoring Reference **SCAN Score Flags:** | Flag | Points | Trigger | |---|---|---| | VOLUME_SPIKE | 3 | 24h volume >3× average daily | | VOLUME_SURGE | 2 | >25% of all-time volume traded in last 24h | | RESOLVING_SOON | 2 | Resolves within 7 days | | SPREAD_ANOMALY | 1 | YES + NO gap >6¢ | | EXTREME_LOW / HIGH | 1 | Price ≤10% or ≥90% on high volume | **Score thresholds:** 2 = WATCH | 4 = ELEVATED | 6+ = HIGH **Conviction thresholds:** <7 pts = LOW | 7-14 pts = MEDIUM | 15+ pts = HIGH **Insider Signal Score:** | Factor | Points | |---|---| | Position > $5K | 1 | | Position > $25K | 3 | | Position > $50K | 3 | | Wallet age < 7 days | 3 | | Wallet age 7–14 days | 2 | | Wallet age 15–30 days | 1 | | Trade count < 5 | 2 | | Trade count 5–10 | 1 | | Coordinated (2+ fresh wallets same market within 6h) | +5 bonus | **Insider alert thresholds:** 3 = WATCH | 6 = ALERT | 9+ = COORDINATED / IMMEDIATE --- ## Guardrails - Never state that a market "will" resolve in a particular direction - Never say "buy YES" or "buy NO" — frame as "YES appears underpriced relative to evidence" - Always append `Not financial advice. DYOR. Prediction markets carry risk.` - If web search returns no useful news, state that clearly rather than fabricating evidence - If a market has a thin order book (<$10K depth), always flag it prominently - Do not deep-dive markets with <$5K total volume — not enough liquidity to be meaningful - For Insider Watch: never accuse wallets of wrongdoing — frame as "unusual pattern" not "insider trading" - Fresh wallet signals are circumstantial — always note that large new positions can have innocent explanations