---
name: place-bet
description: Step 5 of the PE six-step shaping sequence — the bet-commitment gate. Reads a diverge-solutions artifact if present (offers to run it first if absent); accepts options from any source; folds in validation-notes when available; emits bet.md with the full betting table anchoring map-capabilities. Do NOT use to generate options (use diverge-solutions or explore-options) or validate assumptions (use de-risk-intent).
---

# Skill: place-bet

Commit the team to a chosen direction — producing a structured `bet.md` the
next step (`map-capabilities`) can reason against.

## Output rendering

Table — When presenting several items that share the same fields, render a Markdown table. Cap at ~5 columns; beyond that, switch to a per-item detail list. Right-align numeric columns.

## When to invoke

Run after any validation work (de-risk-intent, validation-notes.md) and before
`map-capabilities`. Confirm options exist in some form; if not, this skill offers
`diverge-solutions` first.

## Procedure

**1. Intake.** Resolve `output_dir` via the three-tier config procedure: check
repo-scope `agentbundle-layout.toml [product]` → user-scope → two-branch
elicitation (`docs/product/` is the designed default, not a constant).
Reuse the active `[shaping_queue]` item slug; when invoked standalone, ask which
slug to write to. Never mint a new slug. When multiple candidate slug paths exist
under `<output_dir>/shaping/`, surface them and ask before proceeding.
Look for `<output_dir>/shaping/<slug>/`. Check for any `*solution*` or `*options*`
file. Check for `validation-notes.md`. The solutions file lookup uses a glob
heuristic until `diverge-solutions` ships and canonicalises the filename — update
both skills in the same PR when that happens.

**2. Options intake.** If a solutions artifact is found: surface its options as
the structured set; ask the PE to select or override.
If absent: offer to run `diverge-solutions` first — name the impact: *"Without
structured comparable options, the rationale and risks-accepted in the betting
table are less defensible."* If the PE declines, continue with free-form: ask
for options considered and the chosen direction.
Accept any prior options source — diverge-solutions, explore-options, external
research, or informal notes.
Check validation: if no `validation-notes.md`, no `de-risk-intent` output, and
no stated validation is present in any form — name the gap and ask whether to
proceed or validate first; an unvalidated bet is an accepted risk, not a silent
default. Otherwise when only `validation-notes.md` is absent — continue without
it; the file is never required.

**3. Populate the betting table.** With the PE, fill:
- **option**: chosen direction name/summary
- **option-source**: artifact path, or `free-form` for informal notes
- **confidence**: high / medium / low
- **appetite**: time budget; name a number rather than "open" where possible
- **rationale**: why this option over the alternatives
- **risks-accepted**: explicit list; fold in any validation-notes findings
- **assumptions**: what must be true for the bet to pay off
- **kill-condition** (optional): the result that would reverse this decision;
  fold in from `validation-notes.md` when found, else leave blank
- **next-step**: pointer to `map-capabilities` (auto-filled)

**4. Emit bet.md.** Realpath-expand and symlink-resolve the write path; reject
`..` escapes and any symlink chain that exits the intended root; surface the
resolved absolute path before writing.
Write to `<output_dir>/shaping/<slug>/bet.md`. Re-running overwrites the prior
file — this is the intended revision flow.
Frontmatter: `type: bet`, `slug`, `date`, `option`, `option-source`,
`confidence`, `appetite`. Body sections: Option chosen, Rationale, Risks
accepted, Assumptions, Kill condition (optional), Next step (pointer to
`map-capabilities`), Suggested workspace.toml transition.

**5. Suggest workspace.toml transition.** Print the TOML snippet including the
slug; direct the PE to `capture-work` or manual edit. Do not write to `workspace.toml`.

## Anti-patterns to refuse

Never write to `workspace.toml`. Never write to a literal hardcoded path.
Never run `diverge-solutions` inline — offer it; let the PE decide. Never block
when no options artifact exists — offer and degrade gracefully. Never produce a brief.