---
name: polymarket-ai-divergence
displayName: Polymarket AI Divergence
description: Surface markets where Simmer's AI price diverges from Polymarket. High divergence = potential alpha. Use when user wants to find AI vs market disagreements, scan for trading opportunities, or understand where the AI is bullish/bearish relative to external prices.
metadata: {"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🔮","requires":{"env":["SIMMER_API_KEY"],"pip":["simmer-sdk"]},"cron":null,"autostart":false}}
authors:
  - Simmer (@simmer_markets)
version: "1.0.4"
published: true
---

# Polymarket AI Divergence Scanner

Surface markets where Simmer's AI-driven price diverges from Polymarket.

> **This is a template.** The default scan shows AI vs market divergence — remix it to add your own filters, combine with other signals, or build automated trading on top. The skill handles all the plumbing (market fetching, divergence calculation). Your agent provides the alpha.

## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:
- Find trading opportunities based on AI vs market disagreement
- Scan for high-divergence plays
- See where Simmer's AI is bullish/bearish vs Polymarket
- Understand AI pricing differences

## Quick Commands

```bash
# Show all divergences (>5% default)
python ai_divergence.py

# Quick status
python scripts/status.py

# Only high-divergence (>15%)
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# Bullish only (AI > Polymarket)
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Bearish only (AI < Polymarket)
python ai_divergence.py --bearish

# Top opportunities summary
python ai_divergence.py --opportunities

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json
```

**API Reference:**
- Base URL: `https://api.simmer.markets`
- Auth: `Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY`
- Markets: `GET /api/sdk/markets`

## Configuration

| Setting | Environment Variable | Default | Description |
|---------|---------------------|---------|-------------|
| API Key | `SIMMER_API_KEY` | (required) | Your Simmer SDK key |

## How It Works

Each market has:
- `current_probability` — Simmer's AI-influenced price
- `external_price_yes` — Polymarket's price
- `divergence` — The difference (Simmer - Polymarket)

High divergence = potential alpha if the AI is right.

## Interpreting Signals

| Divergence | Meaning | Action |
|------------|---------|--------|
| > +10% | AI more bullish | Consider BUY YES |
| < -10% | AI more bearish | Consider BUY NO |
| ±5-10% | Mild divergence | Monitor |
| < ±5% | Aligned | No signal |

## Example Output

```
🔮 AI Divergence Scanner
===========================================================================
Market                                     Simmer     Poly      Div   Signal
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?        14.2%   48.5%  -34.3%   🔴 SELL
What will be the top AI model this mon     17.9%    1.0%  +16.9%    🟢 BUY

💡 Top Opportunities (>10% divergence)
===========================================================================
📌 Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
   AI says BUY NO (AI: 14% vs Market: 48%)
   Divergence: -34.3% | Resolves: 2026-07-31
```

## Example Conversations

**"Where does the AI disagree with Polymarket?"**
→ `python ai_divergence.py`

**"Any bullish opportunities?"**
→ `python ai_divergence.py --bullish --min 10`

**"What's the AI's highest conviction play?"**
→ `python ai_divergence.py --opportunities`

## Troubleshooting

**"SIMMER_API_KEY not set"**
→ Get key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab

**"No markets match filters"**
→ Lower `--min` threshold or remove directional filters