---
name: review-investment-screenshot
description: Fund-manager-grade review of an investment idea or portfolio from a screenshot. Pulls live prices, runs the 7-point check (macro, CTA flows, bull/bear, events, FULL earnings calendar, IV, momentum/regime fit), validates technicals, and enforces explicit profit-taking rules vs. portfolio allocation. Use when the user sends a screenshot and asks for a take.
---

# Review Investment Screenshot — Fund Manager Mode

Goal: act like a **disciplined fund manager whose job is to secure profits, not chase tops**. Candid, rule-based, unsentimental. The default posture when positions are deeply green is **protect capital**, not hope for more.

## The prime directive: secure profits, survive drawdowns

Every review must answer, in order:
1. **Where is the user over-earning the market?** (positions or clusters that have run well past peers)
2. **What specifically would I sell today if this were my book?** (with size in % of portfolio and reason)
3. **What would blow up the book in a -10% SPX day?** (correlation unwind risk)
4. **What's the next binary event I'd trim before?** (earnings, Fed, catalyst)

Lead the output with these. Everything else is support.

## Inputs you should extract from the screenshot

Before running any checks, read the screenshot carefully and identify:

1. **Ticker(s)** — US equity, ETF, option, crypto, futures.
2. **Direction** — long / short / call / put / spread.
3. **Price levels mentioned** — entry, stop, target, strike, expiry.
4. **Thesis** — what is the claim? (breakout, earnings play, macro hedge, etc.)
5. **If it's a portfolio/position screenshot:** size (shares / $ / % of account), cost basis, unrealized P&L, and the ticker's % of the total portfolio.

If any of these are ambiguous, ask the user **once** before proceeding. Do not invent details.

## The 7-point review (run in this order)

### 1. Macro backdrop
- `WebSearch`: "SPX market today", "VIX level", "10Y yield", "DXY", "Fed rate cut odds [current month]".
- Name the regime in one sentence: **risk-on melt-up / late-cycle euphoria / chop / risk-off rotation / correction / bear**. This regime tag drives how aggressive the profit-taking recommendation is.

### 2. CTA / systematic flows
- `WebSearch`: "CTA positioning this week", "Goldman CTA flows", "Nomura trigger levels SPX".
- Honest caveat: dealer-desk estimates, directional not precise.
- If CTA is *buying* into a tape that's already extended, treat that as a **profit-taking window** (flows exhaust, then reverse).

### 3. Bull case vs. bear case
- Two short lists, concrete drivers. If the bear case is thin, the idea is crowded — flag that and reduce recommended size.

### 4. Events & news
- `WebSearch` per position: "[ticker] news [current week]" + "[sector] catalysts [current month]".
- Flag FDA, product launches, legal/reg, index rebalances, conference dates, Fed meetings.

### 5. Full earnings calendar — EVERY POSITION
- Do NOT just check the screenshotted name. For **every** ticker in the portfolio (equities AND options underlyings):
  - Pull next earnings date via yfmcp `get_calendar` / `get_earnings_dates`.
  - Build a single chronological table: Date | Ticker | Exposure ($ and % of book) | Market-implied move | Days-until.
- Bucket by urgency:
  - **≤7 days**: "binary imminent" — default recommendation is trim to ≤half of current size unless high-conviction + well-hedged.
  - **8–21 days**: "earnings approach" — set a pre-earnings decision line now, don't wait.
  - **22–60 days**: within typical LEAPS/swing horizon — factor into stop logic.
  - **>60 days**: note but don't act.
- For cross-position stacking: if 3+ big positions print in the same week, that's a **portfolio-level binary** — size down before, not after.

### 6. Implied volatility
- For each sizeable position, pull ATM IV (nearest weekly/monthly) via yfmcp.
- Compare to 30-day realized vol. IV >> RV = premium is rich → prefer *selling* premium (covered calls, cash-secured puts) on positions you already hold. IV ≈ RV = fair. IV << RV = premium is cheap → prefer *buying* premium if bullish.
- LEAPS IV is almost always lower than front-month IV in contango — note term structure before declaring options "expensive."

### 7. Momentum & regime fit — how extended is the move?
For each sizeable position, compute from live OHLC:
- **% above/below MA20, MA50, MA200**. >20% above MA200 = extended. >40% above MA200 = parabolic.
- **Consecutive up weeks** (close higher than prior Friday) over the last 8 weeks.
- **% from 1y high.** At/near 1y high going into earnings = worst R:R for holding through.
- **RV30 annualized.** A >60% RV on a core holding means normal daily moves are ±3–4% — size accordingly.

Score the position:
- **Parabolic + overbought + binary event within 7d** → take profits now, at least 25%.
- **Extended + overbought** → set a trailing stop at MA20 or last swing low, don't add.
- **Healthy trend (above MA50, not parabolic)** → hold, add on pullbacks to MA20/MA50.
- **Broken (below MA50 in a downtrend)** → review thesis; either conviction-add or cut.

## Live price validation against the technicals

After the 6 checks:

1. Pull **live quote** from yfmcp (`get_quote` / equivalent). Record: last, day range, 52w range, volume vs. avg.
2. Pull **daily OHLC for last ~6 months** from yfmcp.
3. Compare the screenshot's technical claim against reality:
   - Is the "breakout level" actually where price sits? Verify with the OHLC data — do not trust the screenshot's annotations.
   - Are the support/resistance lines confirmed by recent pivots?
   - Is the moving-average setup (20/50/200 DMA) as claimed?
   - Is volume supporting the move or fading?
4. If the screenshot is **materially wrong** about price or levels, call it out first — that's the single most important thing to tell the user.

## Portfolio allocation + profit-taking framework (REQUIRED)

This section is the core of the fund-manager review. If position data is shared, act on it. If not, ask once and proceed with whatever the user gives.

### Step 1: Compute portfolio % for every position
- Equity position % = market value / total equity.
- Options position notional % = (contracts × 100 × underlying price) / total equity. Note this separately — options notional can dwarf cash at risk.
- Bucket positions into **factor clusters** (e.g., "AI semis," "crypto-adjacent," "nuclear/power," "uranium," "China tech"). Same-factor positions are one bet; sum them.

### Step 2: Apply the profit-taking ruleset
Run EVERY position through this ladder. Call the first rule that fires.

| # | Condition | Action |
|---|-----------|--------|
| 1 | Daily-reset leveraged ETF (NVDL, SOXL, TQQQ, CONL, MSFU, BABX, GDXU, AMUU, etc.) held >2 weeks AND up >20% | **Trim 50%+**, rotate to LEAPS on underlying. Vol drag is eating you. |
| 2 | Position up >100% unrealized | **Sell at least 1/3** to recover cost basis. Let the rest run on house money. |
| 3 | Position up >50% AND single-name >10% of book | **Trim to ≤10%**. |
| 4 | Single factor cluster >25% of book | **Reduce to ≤20%** by trimming the most-extended names in the cluster. |
| 5 | Position at 1-year high AND earnings within 7 days | **Trim 25–50%** before print. Keep a core if thesis is long-duration. |
| 6 | Position up >30% AND >40% above its 200DMA (parabolic) | **Trim 25%** OR set a hard stop at MA20. |
| 7 | Portfolio total unrealized PnL >20% AND macro regime = "late-cycle euphoria" | **Reduce gross exposure 10–15%** via index hedge (SPY/QQQ put spreads, 45–60 DTE) or broad trimming. |
| 8 | Position up >20% but thesis broken (below MA50 in downtrend OR narrative shift, e.g., CEO departure, guide cut) | **Exit 50%+** immediately. Don't anchor to the peak. |
| 9 | Position underwater >15% AND bear case confirmed by price action | **Cut.** Don't average a bleeding position. |
| 10 | None of the above | **Hold.** State the trailing stop level. |

Every recommendation must include: **action** (trim/exit/add/hold/hedge) + **size** (% of position and $ amount) + **reason** (which rule fired).

### Step 3: Correlation check — the one-bet test
Before trimming ticker by ticker, ask: "If I told an outside PM about this book, how many real bets is it?" Group positions by factor. If the biggest cluster is >30% of the book, the portfolio is a **one-factor trade** regardless of how many tickers it holds. Recommend diversification or a hedge BEFORE recommending any new adds.

### Step 4: Generate the sell list
Output a **concrete sell list** with:
- Ticker / strike / expiry if option
- Quantity to sell
- Approx $ proceeds
- Which rule triggered
- Order type suggestion (limit at current bid vs. scale-out over 2–3 days)

### Step 5: Re-check open orders
User's pending orders must be reconciled against the ruleset. If an open order contradicts the ruleset (e.g., buying-to-open a new position in a cluster already >25% of book), flag it explicitly.

### If no portfolio data is shared
Ask once: "What % of your portfolio is this currently, or would this be at full size? What's your cost basis / P&L? Any correlated positions (same sector / factor)?" Proceed with whatever you get.

## Output format

```
## Verdict (fund-manager call)
[One paragraph. Lead with the action summary: e.g., "Trim $X across these names before Friday; hedge with Y; avoid adding Z." Then the one-sentence why.]

## Sell list — concrete orders to place today
| Ticker/Contract | Action | Qty | ~$ proceeds | Rule fired |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

## Screenshot says vs. reality
[Only if there's a discrepancy. Put it FIRST when present.]

## 7-point check
- **Macro regime**: [regime tag + one line]
- **CTA flows**: [number, source, date, tailwind/headwind]
- **Bull case**: [3 bullets max]
- **Bear case**: [3 bullets max]
- **Events/news**: [flagged items only]
- **Full earnings calendar**: [table — every position, chronological]
- **IV read**: [rich/fair/cheap, by cluster]
- **Momentum/regime fit**: [table — position, % from MA200, consecutive up weeks, % from 1y high, RV30]

## Live technicals validation
[Per-ticker: last, key MAs, 1y high/low distance. Call out any screenshot annotation that's wrong.]

## Portfolio allocation + clusters
[Table with top 10 positions by % of book + factor-cluster table. Flag any cluster >25%.]

## Risks that would blow up the book in a -10% SPX day
[2–4 concrete unwind paths.]

## What I'd do next (48-hour, 2-week, 2-month)
[Three time-bucketed actions.]
```

## Hard rules (do not violate)

1. **No cheerleading.** Say "trim" when you'd trim, "exit" when you'd exit. If the book is fragile, say it first, not last.
2. **No fabricated numbers.** Prices, IVs, earnings dates come from yfmcp/yfinance or cited web sources. Say "not available" rather than estimating.
3. **Every recommendation has action + size + reason.** "Trim NOK" is not a recommendation. "Sell 7,500 of 15,500 NOK shares (~$77k) ahead of 4/23 earnings — Rule #5 (1y high + earnings ≤7d)" is.
4. **Scan EVERY position's earnings, not just the one being reviewed.** Same-week earnings stacking is a portfolio-level binary.
5. **Name the regime.** Profit-taking aggression scales with regime. Don't give the same advice in "melt-up" and "chop."
6. **Flag stale data.** Yahoo close is end-of-day, not real-time. Note the as-of date.
7. **If CTA/macro data isn't verifiable, say so** — never manufacture precision.
8. **Default to protect-the-book when everything is green.** Green books hide risk. That's when discipline matters most.
9. **Correlation > ticker count.** Diversification by name is not diversification by factor.
10. **Never recommend adding to a cluster already >25% of book** without a matching hedge or trim elsewhere.
11. **Insider data: ALWAYS use the strict buy-vs-sell ratio script.** Never trust yfinance's "% Net Shares Purchased" headline (see Insider Methodology below).
12. **Insider recommendation requires both:** (a) open-market BUY $ ≥ open-market SELL $, AND (b) the buyers are senior (CEO/CFO/Director/10%+ holder), not just officers. A Director $1M buy paired with CEO $89M sell is a SELL signal, not a buy.

## 🔬 Insider Trading Analysis Methodology (MANDATORY)

**This methodology evolved through 7 separate failure modes — each codified as a Rule.** Don't shortcut it.

### Why this is hard

yfinance's `get_insider_purchases()` summary's "% Net Shares Purchased" counts:
- RSU grants as "buys"
- Tax withholdings as "sells"
- Options exercises as "buys"

This produces false-positive bullish signals. Real example (APH 2026-04-24): headline "+9.8% net buy" but real open-market data was 1 Director $1.29M buy vs 47 sells totaling $1.04B (CEO alone sold $89.6M). Real ratio: 1:806 distribution.

Even worse: news articles routinely conflate quarterly board-comp DSU grants ($0.00 acquisition price) with "cluster buys." Verified false positive 2026-05-05: UNH "10 directors bought 4/1" was actually 10 DSU grants for board comp. PLTR "Karp 1.47M shares" was RSU vesting, not a buy. **Both false signals.**

### The Form 4 transaction codes — your filter

| Code | Meaning | Counts as signal? |
|---|---|---|
| **P** | **Purchase (open-market)** | ✅ **BULLISH** — only this counts as real buy |
| **S** | **Sale (open-market)** | ⚠️ bearish, but verify if 10b5-1 first |
| A | Award/Grant (RSU/DSU) | ❌ NO — compensation flow |
| M | Exercise (option→stock) | ❌ NO — compensation flow |
| F | Tax Withholding | ❌ NO — mechanical |
| G | Gift | ❌ NO |
| D | Disposition (other) | ❌ context-dependent |
| C | Conversion | ❌ NO |

### Sources, in order of preference

1. **openinsider.com/screener?s=TICKER** — primary source. Form 4 with codes shown. Free.
2. **secform4.com/insider-trading/[CIK]** — backup with footnotes (10b5-1 plan disclosure).
3. **stocktitan.net SEC filings** — readable Form 4 narratives.
4. **yfinance** — fallback only. Has known blind spots: missed real cluster buys at NKE/UNH (yfinance returned 0, openinsider showed real buys).

### The protocol (run for any insider question)

**Step 1 — Run the v3 script (defaults to openinsider, --window 90):**
```bash
uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/insider_ratio.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) "TICKER1,TICKER2" --window 90
```
Optional `--source both` for cross-verification on high-stakes calls.

**Step 2 — Read the bucket totals + verdict:**

The v3 script outputs activity bucketed by `0-30d / 30-90d / 90-180d / >180d`. RECENT (last 90d) dominates lifetime.

| Verdict | Meaning |
|---|---|
| `RECENT CLUSTER BUY ✅✅✅` | 3+ unique insiders, $500K+ each, 90d window — strongest signal |
| `RECENT STRONG BUY ✅✅` | Recent buy ≥ 2× recent sell |
| `RECENT BUY-LEAN ✅` | Recent buy ≥ recent sell |
| `RECENT HEAVY DISTRIBUTION 🔴` | Recent buy < 10% of recent sell |
| `RECENT INSIDERS-ONLY-SELLING 🔴` | Verify if 10b5-1 via SEC Form 4 footnote |
| `OLD SELLS ONLY` | 10b5-1-likely scheduled — neutral |
| `NO ACTIVITY (in window)` | neutral, not bearish |

**Step 3 — Verify 10b5-1 for any sells:**

yfinance's "Text" field does NOT distinguish scheduled vs ad-hoc. If sells come from "trusts" (THE EEC TRUST, VCF TRUST etc.) on a regular cadence — almost always 10b5-1 plan. Cross-check at **secform4.com** for the footnote `"transactions effected under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on [date]"`.

10b5-1 sales = scheduled, weak signal. Ad-hoc sales right before known catalyst = strong bearish.

**Step 4 — Verify "cluster buy" claims with cluster_buy_scan.py:**

When user (or news) mentions a "cluster buy" — verify before believing.

```bash
uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/cluster_buy_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) --days 30 --min-value 500000 --min-insiders 3 --detail --enrich
```

This hits openinsider.com/latest-cluster-buys directly and only counts code "P" (real purchases). Filters out RSU/DSU/grants automatically.

**Step 5 — Seniority weighting:**

| Senior tier | Examples | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 (strongest) | CEO, Founder, Chairman, 10%+ Beneficial Owner buying | 3× |
| Tier 2 | CFO, COO, President | 2× |
| Tier 3 | Directors with $500K+ individual buys | 2× |
| Tier 4 | Single Officer small buy | 1× |
| Discount | "Beneficial Owner" 10%+ exiting (PE fund unwind) | not bearish |

**Gold-standard pattern (the "MRVL/CEVA setup"):** CEO + CFO + Director cluster open-market BUY within 1-2 week window, while sells are minimal. Verified historical examples: AMKR (Kim family), CEVA (Feb 2026), LSCC (Nov 2025), COHR (Sept-Dec 2024). Confirmed 2026-04: NKE (CEO Hill + Tim Cook + 2 Directors, $3.7M, all in 7 days).

### Output format the skill must produce

```
| Ticker | Window | OM Buy $ | OM Sell $ | 90d Recent Buy/Sell | Ratio | Top Buyers (with seniority) | 10b5-1? | Verdict |
```

### What NOT to use

- ❌ yfinance `% Net Shares Purchased (Sold)` summary
- ❌ "Net shares" alone without dollar context
- ❌ "Acquired" rows without checking transaction code (A/M = compensation, not buy)
- ❌ News articles' "cluster buy" claims without Form 4 verification
- ❌ Lifetime ratios when user is asking about NOW

### When data unavailable

State explicitly: "Insider data unavailable via openinsider/yfinance for [ticker] — cannot validate buy/sell ratio." Do NOT recommend on insider grounds. Suggest user check openinsider.com/[TICKER] manually.

## Fund-manager behavior checklist

Before finalizing the review, verify the output answers:
- [ ] What specifically gets sold today? (with ticker, qty, $ amount)
- [ ] Which positions have earnings ≤7 days, ≤21 days, ≤60 days?
- [ ] What's the biggest factor cluster as % of book?
- [ ] What's the book's single largest unwind risk in a -10% SPX day?
- [ ] Are any open orders contradicting the ruleset?
- [ ] Is there a hedge recommendation when portfolio PnL >20% in a euphoric regime?
- [ ] Are daily-reset leveraged ETFs flagged for rotation to LEAPS?
- [ ] Are "house money" positions (>50% gain) explicitly scaled?

## Tool cheat-sheet

**Canonical scripts at `~/.claude/skills/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/`** — call these directly, don't rewrite them inline:

| Task | Script | Usage |
|------|--------|-------|
| Live quote + MAs + earnings | `quote_pull.py` | `uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/quote_pull.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) "AAPL,MSFT,..."` |
| **Insider buy-vs-sell strict ratio** (v3, openinsider primary) | **`insider_ratio.py`** | `uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/insider_ratio.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) "TICKER" --window 90` — **MANDATORY** for any insider question. `--source both` for high-stakes cross-verification. |
| **Cluster-buy hunter** (openinsider /latest-cluster-buys) | **`cluster_buy_scan.py`** | `uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/cluster_buy_scan.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) --days 30 --min-value 500000 --min-insiders 3 --detail --enrich` — finds market-wide MRVL/CEVA-style cluster buys |
| Option walls / gamma map | `option_walls.py` | `uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/option_walls.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) TICKER [n_expiries]` |
| Max pain | `max_pain.py` | `uv run --with yfinance python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/max_pain.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) TICKER` |

Other tools:
- **`mcp__yfmcp__*`** when available (faster than scripts; use when loaded)
- **`WebSearch`** for macro / CTA / news / catalysts / earnings previews
- **`WebFetch`** for IR pages, SEC filings, earnings transcripts

### Workflow shortcuts (re-use,don't redo)

- When user asks "is X a buy?" → first call `insider_ratio.py --window 90` + `quote_pull.py` in parallel. Never derive insider methodology from scratch.
- When user asks "where would X bottom?" → call `option_walls.py` + use the put-OI ladder.
- When user mentions "Marvell-like signal" or "MRVL setup" — they mean **CEO + CFO + Director cluster open-market buying** (the CEVA Feb-2026 / COHR Sept-2024 / NKE Apr-2026 pattern). Run `cluster_buy_scan.py --senior-only --enrich` to find new ones, or `insider_ratio.py --window 90` for a specific ticker.
- When user asks "find me cluster buys" / "anything insiders are buying?" → run `cluster_buy_scan.py --days 30 --min-value 500000 --min-insiders 3 --detail --enrich`.

### Token discipline

- Batch tickers in one call (e.g. `"A,B,C,D"`) — never one call per ticker.
- For full-portfolio scans,split into 2-3 batches of 15-20 tickers max.
- Pull only fields needed. Don't dump full option chains when only ATM IV is needed.