--- name: stock-business-review description: Review a US-listed company's business model and revenue structure for an equity-research workup. Covers product/service mix, customer concentration, geographic exposure, industry position, revenue-growth decomposition (organic vs acquired vs price vs volume), and information-tier discipline (which numbers are facts vs management narrative). Trigger when analyzing a single US ticker's business fundamentals, when reading 10-K Item 1 "Business" and Item 1A "Risk Factors", or when the orchestrator stock-analysis-lead dispatches business review. Dispatched by stock-analysis-lead or invoked directly for business-focused analysis. allowed-tools: Read, Grep, Glob, WebSearch, WebFetch, Bash --- # Stock Business Review ## Purpose Read a company's 10-K and 10-Q with the discipline of a senior equity analyst: identify what the business actually sells, to whom, how it makes money, and what kind of growth its revenue numbers are reflecting. Surface red flags that pure financial-statement readers miss — narrative buckets, undefined adjusted metrics, customer concentration risk, and acquired-growth dependency. The output is a structured set of Findings that the orchestrator uses to build the Good-Company score and frame valuation. ## When To Use - Orchestrator `stock-analysis-lead` dispatches a business-dimension review. - The user directly asks "what does actually do" or "is 's growth real" or "tell me about 's customer concentration". - A standalone business-model classification is needed before deeper financial analysis. ## When NOT To Use - Cash-flow / margin / operating-leverage analysis → `stock-earnings-quality-review` - Leverage / liquidity / goodwill → `stock-balance-sheet-review` - Capital allocation / management quality → `stock-management-review` - Competitive moat / TAM / market share → `stock-industry-review` - Final verdict or target price → orchestrator's synthesis step (do NOT recommend buy/hold/sell from this skill) ## Mandatory Gates ### 1) Execution Integrity Gate You must read the 10-K Item 1 "Business" section before drawing any conclusion. If the orchestrator's `data-manifest.json` does not include a 10-K path, return `SKIPPED (no 10-K available)` and do not fabricate analysis from press releases or analyst summaries. ### 2) Filing Vintage Gate The 10-K must be the most recent annual filing (within the last 14 months from today). If the only available 10-K is older, flag it explicitly in Execution Status — old filings miss recent strategic shifts and recent customer-concentration data. ### 3) Citation Gate Every Finding must cite a specific filing section (e.g., "10-K Item 1, page 7" or "10-K Item 1A, Risk Factor 3"). Findings without citations are suppressed. ### 4) Non-US Refusal Gate If you detect the ticker is an A-share (3-digit or 6-digit Chinese code), HK-share (4-digit HK code), or ADR of a foreign private issuer filing 20-F instead of 10-K, return `SKIPPED (non-US issuer — out of scope)` immediately. ## Workflow 1. Locate the 10-K and latest 10-Q from the manifest. Read 10-K Item 1 (Business), Item 1A (Risk Factors), and Item 7 (MD&A) summary. 2. Run the Filing-Pattern-Gated Execution Protocol — for each checklist item with a filing-section pattern, locate the relevant section first, then apply semantic analysis only on those passages. 3. For checklist items that are pure-semantic (no stable filing keyword), apply full reasoning. 4. Cross-check Risk Factors against the Business section — discrepancies between the rosy "Business" narrative and the candid "Risk Factors" are a strong signal. 5. Emit Findings with severity, evidence quote, and citation. Suppress items not found rather than fabricate. ## Filing-Pattern-Gated Execution Protocol This is the same idea as Grep-Gated for code: each check has a filing-section pattern. If the section/keyword is absent, mark NOT FOUND and skip semantic analysis. Only HIT sections get full reasoning. ### Execution Order 1. Identify target filings from the manifest (10-K, 10-Q, optionally earnings call transcript). 2. For each grep-gated checklist item, search the filing(s) for the documented keyword/section pattern. 3. **HIT** → semantic analysis to confirm true positive vs false positive. 4. **MISS** → auto-mark NOT FOUND. Do not extrapolate from absence — note absence in Execution Status if material. 5. For semantic-only items: full reasoning on the relevant section. 6. Report ONLY FOUND items. 7. Include `Filing pre-scan: X/Y items hit, Z confirmed as findings` in Execution Status. ### Compound Pattern Protocol Some red flags are "presence of A without B" (e.g., "AI revenue" mentioned without a definition). Use compound patterns: - HIT on A (keyword present) - AND NOT on B (definition / methodology / breakdown absent in the same section) - → Confirmed Finding ## Business Checklist (11 Items) | ID | Item | Filing Pattern | Severity Bias | |---|---|---|---| | BUS-01 | Revenue composition: products vs services, subscription vs transactional, B2B vs B2C, hardware vs software | 10-K Item 1 "Products" / "Services" / "Revenue" subsection; 10-K Note "Disaggregation of revenue" | Med | | BUS-02 | Customer concentration | 10-K Item 1A keyword `"significant customer"`, `"customer concentration"`, `"10% of revenue"` | High if Top1 > 10% | | BUS-03 | Geographic revenue split + FX sensitivity | 10-K Note "Geographic information"; 10-K Item 7 "Foreign currency" | Med | | BUS-04 | Industry position (market leader vs challenger vs long-tail) | 10-K Item 1 "Competition" subsection | Med | | BUS-05 | Business-model archetype: high-margin low-turnover (software/SaaS) vs low-margin high-turnover (retail) vs capital-intensive (utility) | Derive from 10-K Item 1 + gross margin in Item 8 | Low (informational) | | BUS-06 | Revenue-growth decomposition: organic vs acquired vs price vs volume | 10-K Item 7 MD&A; keywords `"acquisition contributed"`, `"organic growth"`, `"price increase"`, `"unit growth"` | High if mostly inorganic | | BUS-07 | Deferred-revenue trend vs reported-revenue trend | 10-K balance sheet line "Deferred revenue" / "Contract liabilities", compared YoY against revenue | High if deferred growth << revenue growth (future slowdown signal) | | BUS-08 | Material adjusted-metric usage and definition consistency | Earnings releases + 10-K "Non-GAAP reconciliation"; keywords `"Adjusted EBITDA"`, `"Non-GAAP"` | High if SBC excluded from Adjusted EBITDA | | BUS-09 | Narrative buckets without defined methodology | Compound pattern: `"AI revenue"` OR `" revenue"` AND NOT (methodology paragraph in same section) | High if material % of total | | BUS-10 | Information-tier discipline — what is fact vs management-defined | Cross-check: any number quoted by IR but absent from filings | High if material | | BUS-11 | Contra-revenue / client incentives — the gross→net bridge | 10-K revenue-recognition note + MD&A; keywords `"client incentives"`, `"rebates"`, `"incentives"`, `"contra-revenue"`, `"net revenue"` | **High for network/platform/marketplace**; Med otherwise | ### Severity Rubric - **High**: A finding that would change the orchestrator's Good-Company score for "real growth" or "diversification". E.g., 60% of revenue from one customer; 40% of growth from acquisitions; "AI revenue" without methodology. - **Medium**: A material structural fact the orchestrator needs to weight scenarios — e.g., 30% of revenue is FX-exposed; the company is #3 in a #1-takes-most market. - **Low**: Useful context that does not move the verdict — e.g., a clean disaggregation of revenue by segment. ## Evidence Rules - Every Finding cites a filing section with at least one of: page number, item number, or note number. - Direct quotes are preferred over paraphrase; cap each quote at 60 words. - "I think" / "appears to" / "likely" without evidence → revise to evidence-based statement or drop the Finding. ## Output Format ### Findings Order: High → Medium → Low. Within each severity, order by checklist ID. #### [High|Medium|Low] Short Title - **ID**: `BUS-NN` (use the checklist ID; if multiple instances, append `-a`, `-b`) - **Citation**: `10-K Item X, page Y` (or Note Z) - **Evidence**: direct quote ≤60 words - **Implication**: one sentence describing what this means for the investment thesis ### Suppressed Items Items the orchestrator might expect but you found no evidence for — flag as `[Suppressed]` with one-line reason. Do not invent Findings to fill gaps. ### Execution Status ``` Filings reviewed: 10-K (FY2024, filed 2025-02-15), 10-Q (Q3 2025) Filing pre-scan: 9/10 items hit, 6 confirmed as findings Skipped items: BUS-07 (deferred revenue not disclosed — company is non-subscription) ``` ### Summary One line: `N High / M Medium / K Low — most material: `. ## No-Finding Case If the business is structurally healthy (no concentration, clean disaggregation, organic growth, defined non-GAAP metrics), output: ``` No business-model findings — structurally clean. Notable positives: ``` Do not fabricate marginal findings to look thorough. Suppression discipline matters: orchestrator interprets "no findings" as evidence of quality. ## Load References Selectively - `references/business-model-patterns.md` — load when classifying business-model archetype (BUS-05), when SaaS-specific subscriptions need NRR/ARR awareness, or when building the contra-revenue / gross→net bridge (BUS-11); covers high-margin-low-turnover vs low-margin-high-turnover taxonomies, revenue-disaggregation patterns, and the client-incentives bridge. ## Review Discipline You are one of 5 parallel workers. The orchestrator depends on you reporting only what you actually found in filings, with full citations. Over-reporting wastes the orchestrator's deduplication budget; fabrication breaks the entire analysis. When in doubt, suppress.