--- name: think-three-horizons description: Produces a three-curve transition map (a declining present H1, a contested middle H2 read in two directions, an emerging future H3) with the actor located in it. Use when a group is stuck in a present-versus-future binary and needs to govern the managed decline of the old system and the cultivation of the new one at once. Not a single backward path from one fixed future, and not a set of ranked external futures. license: Apache-2.0 metadata: id: thinking-framework-skills.three-horizons family: systems-and-consequences evidence-tier: "C" version: 0.1.0 standard: "0.8" --- # Three Horizons Most planning jumps straight from "now" to "the goal" and skips the messy middle, or it freezes into a present-versus-future binary where one camp defends the status quo and another chases a disruption. Three Horizons refuses both. The durable cognitive move is to hold three overlapping change curves on one time canvas at once - a declining present system (H1), a contested transition zone (H2), and an emerging desired future (H3) - locate the actor inside that picture, and read the transition dynamics rather than treating the future as a single forecast or a single endpoint. Its signature, the part no neighboring method has, is reading the H2 middle in two directions: H2-plus innovations that genuinely carry the H3 future, and H2-minus innovations that get captured by H1 and merely prop up the incumbent system. The output is a **three-horizons transition map**: the named H1 system and what is failing in it, the H3 aspiration and the seeds of it already visible now, the H2 transition moves classified by which horizon they actually serve, and a read of where the actor is standing and where their attention and energy are currently going. The map is a shared orientation for dialogue, not a defended decision. ## When to Use - A group is stuck in a present-versus-future binary - either defending the status quo or chasing a disruption - and needs to see that the managed decline of the old system and the cultivation of the new one are happening at once and have to be governed together. - The "messy middle" between today and the goal is being skipped, and the transition zone itself needs to be named, populated, and governed. - Incremental and transformative change are being funded or measured the same way, and they need to be distinguished so they are not held to the same metrics. - Actors with different mindsets - the H1 defender, the H2 entrepreneur, the H3 visionary - are talking past each other and need a shared map to talk across rather than past. - A faint "pocket of the future in the present" exists today and the question is how to grow it while the dominant system declines. ## When NOT to Use - **Do not use it to derive one backward path from a single fixed future.** That is `think-backcasting` (fix one desired future, derive one linear milestone path back to a step you can take now). Three Horizons holds three curves at once and produces a present-state orientation map, not a route - and it adds the managed decline of H1 and the two-directional H2 read, which backcasting has no analogue for. - **Do not use it to test which futures are plausible and whether a strategy is robust across them.** That is `think-scenario-planning` (a set of divergent, equally-plausible external futures crossed from two critical uncertainties, held in parallel without ranking, with a robustness read). Three Horizons asserts one declining present and one desired future and reads the transition between them; it does not generate alternative external futures and must not be used to launder a single preferred narrative into a structured-looking picture. - **Do not use it to trace the consequences of one change radiating outward.** That is `think-futures-wheel` (one consequence map radiating from one change). Three Horizons runs along time with three curves, not outward from one event. - **Do not use it to drive one problem down through layers of causation.** That is `think-iceberg-model` (one problem driven down events, patterns, structures, mental models). Three Horizons is a horizontal time canvas, not a vertical depth probe. - **Do not read the horizons as fixed time bands.** Equating H3 with "5+ years out" and H1 with "now" is the single most common and most destructive failure. The horizons are degrees of transformation, not calendar distances: an H3 disruption can ship as fast as an H1 product. If the map is being built on a calendar axis, stop and rebuild it on degree-of-transformation. - **Do not apply H1 governance to H2 and H3 work.** Holding an early H3 venture to H1's ROI and certainty hurdles strangles it. The entire value of the frame is that the three horizons need different metrics; using it without that discipline is worse than not using it. ## Instructions When asked to map a transition, govern an incumbent-to-future shift, or break a present-versus-future binary, follow these steps: 1. **State the system in transition and the actor.** Name, in one line, the system or domain whose transition is in question and the actor whose vantage point the map is drawn from. The map is always drawn from somewhere; say from where. 2. **Set the axis to degree of transformation, not calendar time.** Make explicit that the three curves are degrees of transformation (how far from today's dominant logic), not time bands. This warning is load-bearing - if the reader places the horizons on a calendar, the tool collapses. 3. **Describe H1, the declining present.** Name the currently dominant system - the way things are done now - and, specifically, what is failing in it or losing fit as the environment changes. H1 starts high and declines; capture both that it dominates now and why it is under pressure. 4. **Describe H3, the emerging desired future.** Name the qualitatively different, desired future system, and identify the "pockets of the future in the present" - the faint seeds of H3 already visible today. H3 is an aspiration with present-day evidence, not a fantasy with no foothold. 5. **Populate H2, the contested transition zone.** List the disruptions, ventures, and innovations that bridge H1 and H3 - the moves actually in play or available in the messy middle. This is the object most planning skips; populate it explicitly. 6. **Read H2 in two directions (the signature move).** Classify each H2 move as **H2-plus** (genuinely carries the H3 future) or **H2-minus** (gets captured by H1 and merely props up the incumbent). A move can look innovative and still be H2-minus. This two-directional read is the heart of the method; do not skip it. 7. **Locate the actor and their energy.** Place the actor on the canvas: which horizon are they standing in, and where is their attention and energy actually going right now (defending H1, working the H2 middle, cultivating H3)? Name any mismatch between where they say they are and where their effort flows. 8. **Note the governance implication.** State, briefly, that the three horizons need different metrics, and flag where H1 governance is being (or would be) misapplied to H2 or H3 work. This is an orientation note, not a decision. 9. **Emit the three-horizons transition map** per `references/TEMPLATE.md`: the named H1 and what is failing, the H3 aspiration and its present seeds, the H2 moves classified H2-plus / H2-minus, and the actor located in the picture. Frame the map as a shared orientation for dialogue, never as a forecast or a defended answer. The template's pre-printed evidence caveat is part of the artifact; carry it through verbatim. ## Output Format Use the template in `references/TEMPLATE.md`. The deliverable is the filled three-horizons transition map - the declining H1 and its failing fit, the emerging H3 and its present seeds, the H2 transition zone with each move classified H2-plus or H2-minus, and the actor located on the canvas with their energy read - not a prose essay. Keep the axis on degree of transformation, never on calendar time, and present the map as a sensemaking scaffold, not a decision. ## Quality Checklist Before finalizing, verify: - [ ] The system in transition and the actor's vantage point are named in one line. - [ ] The axis is explicitly degree of transformation, not calendar time, and the horizons are not read as fixed time bands. - [ ] H1 is named as the dominant-now system AND what is failing in it is stated. - [ ] H3 is named as a qualitatively different desired future AND its "pockets of the future in the present" (present-day seeds) are identified. - [ ] The H2 transition zone is populated with actual moves - the messy middle is not skipped. - [ ] Every H2 move is classified H2-plus (carries H3) or H2-minus (captured by H1); the two-directional read is present. - [ ] The actor is located on the canvas, and where their attention and energy actually flow is named (including any mismatch). - [ ] The governance implication (different horizons need different metrics; H1 metrics not misapplied to H2/H3) is noted. - [ ] The map is framed as a shared orientation for dialogue, not a forecast or a defended decision. - [ ] No overclaiming: the evidence is tier C and transferred; claim a sensemaking scaffold that surfaces transition dynamics, not a method that yields better foresight or outcomes (see `evidence/dossier.md`). ## Evidence Tier **C** (governing, conceptually plausible but undertested). Three Horizons is a real, named, twice-originated method - a growth-portfolio version (Baghai, Coley and White, *The Alchemy of Growth*, 1999) and a futures-practice version (Curry and Hodgson 2008; Sharpe et al. 2016) - with a clear lineage and a sustained academic and practitioner literature. That literature is genuine, and it is easy to mistake for effectiveness evidence: it is not. The peer-reviewed papers are method exposition and theory-building, and the best empirical entry (Luederitz et al. 2024, *Ecology and Society*) is a single descriptive case reporting that participants moved through transformative-learning phases in the predicted sequence - uncontrolled, single-case, with an outcome internal to the method's own logic. There is **no controlled or comparative study** locatable measuring whether Three Horizons produces better foresight, better decisions, or better outcomes against any baseline, and a live external critique (Steve Blank, 2019) argues a core assumption - that the horizons are time bands - is wrong for modern innovation. So the evidence supports "well-described, twice-originated, plausibly useful as a scaffold," and does NOT support any effectiveness claim. **Transfer caveat:** every piece of evidence is from human participants in workshops, strategy rooms, and field cases; none studies Three Horizons performed by or with an AI agent, so the evidence is transferred from human facilitation contexts and is not validated for agent-run use. The skill ships honestly as a C-tier sensemaking scaffold that names the transition zone and surfaces its dynamics, never as a predictor or an outcome method. Full grading, named sources, excluded figures, and the distinctness proof: `evidence/dossier.md`. ## Examples See `references/EXAMPLE.md` for a completed three-horizons transition map on a real decision.