When you are tracking a quantity you cannot observe directly — a true value that drifts slowly while your measurements are noisy — a fixed-window moving average and a static anomaly threshold are both crude. The window is either too short (jittery) or too long (laggy), and a static threshold cannot tell a real shift from ordinary noise. A Kalman-style recursive estimator solves both: it auto-tunes how much to trust each new measurement, and its prediction error is a built-in surprise detector.
Adaptive Estimation is a community-contributed Claude Code skill in the general-misc sub-category. It ships as a SKILL.md file that Claude Code auto-discovers under ~/.claude/skills/adaptive-estimation/ and loads when your prompt matches the skill's trigger.
When to invoke it: Use when tracking a slowly-varying latent quantity from noisy measurements with quantifiable uncertainty — a drifting metric, capacity, latency trend, or confidence. Prefer a Kalman-style adaptive estimator over fixed moving averages or static thresholds.
The Adaptive Estimation Claude Code skill is built for Claude Code users and developers across all disciplines looking for general-purpose AI assistance. It's part of ClaudSkills (also referred to as Claude Skills or Claude Code Skills) — the open community-curated registry of 196,000+ SKILL.md files for Anthropic's Claude Code agent and the wider Claude ecosystem (Claude API, Claude Agent SDK).
mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills/adaptive-estimation curl -L https://claudskills.com/skills/adaptive-estimation/SKILL.md \ -o ~/.claude/skills/adaptive-estimation/SKILL.md
Or just download SKILL.md directly and drop it into ~/.claude/skills/adaptive-estimation/. Claude Code auto-discovers it on next session.
Skills live at ~/.claude/skills/adaptive-estimation/SKILL.md on macOS/Linux, or %USERPROFILE%\.claude\skills\adaptive-estimation\SKILL.md on Windows. See the full install guide for step-by-step instructions.
Open @claudskills_bot on Telegram, tap Open Desktop App, and the desktop app installs this skill for you. Or share the bot link with a colleague — they get the same one-tap install. Learn more →
The ClaudSkills desktop app installs any skill directly into ~/.claude/skills/ with one click — no terminal required. Pro starts at $9/mo or $149 lifetime.
For the full experience including quality scoring and one-click install features for each skill — upgrade to Pro.
SKILL.md from the source repository to ~/.claude/skills/adaptive-estimation/SKILL.md and restart Claude Code. Both flows are detailed at claudskills.com/install/.SKILL.md file that lives under ~/.claude/skills/<name>/ and tells the Claude Code CLI agent how to perform a specific task (instructions, prompts, allowed tools). Skills are auto-discovered at session start. Adaptive Estimation is one of 67,000+ skills indexed in the open ClaudSkills catalog, classified under the General category. Learn more at /learn/what-is-a-claude-skill/.If you reference this skill in a blog post, paper, or documentation, you can cite it as:
@misc{adaptive-estimation-2026,
author = {selamy-labs},
title = {Adaptive Estimation [Claude Code skill]},
year = {2026},
publisher = {ClaudSkills},
url = {https://claudskills.com/skills/adaptive-estimation/}
}Grade A · scanned 2026-09-28 — free static scan against the OWASP Agentic Skills Top 10.
No risk patterns were found in any of the ten OWASP-aligned categories. How grading works ›
Browse all General skills in the ClaudSkills registry, or explore these other picks from the same category:
Part of Acreator Store — Adam Lankamer's AI tools: PerfectStudio · Ucaption · UTagger · AutoXPoster · TestYourSkills · AutomationFlows · Au Naturel · Telegram @acreatorstore
SKILL.md files, not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Anthropic.