Forecast Premortem

Quality score: 70/100 · Category: General · Sub-category: general-misc

Stress-tests predictions by assuming failure and working backward to identify blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence. Applies Gary Klein's premortem technique to probabilistic forecasting. Use when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, want to widen overconfident intervals, or when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.

What this skill does

Forecast Premortem is a production-ready Claude Code skill (quality score 70/100) in the general-misc sub-category. It ships as a SKILL.md file that Claude Code auto-discovers under ~/.claude/skills/forecast-premortem/ and loads when your prompt matches the skill's trigger.

When to invoke it: Use when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, want to widen overconfident intervals, or when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.

Who uses this skill

The Forecast Premortem skill is built for Claude Code users and developers across all disciplines looking for general-purpose AI assistance. It is part of the open ClaudSkills registry, a community-curated catalog of 15,000+ capabilities you can install for Claude Code — the Claude CLI agent.

How to install

Free

Manual install (2 steps)

mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills/forecast-premortem
curl -L https://claudskills.com/skills/forecast-premortem/SKILL.md \
  -o ~/.claude/skills/forecast-premortem/SKILL.md

Or just download SKILL.md directly and drop it into ~/.claude/skills/forecast-premortem/. Claude Code auto-discovers it on next session.

Skills live at ~/.claude/skills/forecast-premortem/SKILL.md on macOS/Linux, or %USERPROFILE%\.claude\skills\forecast-premortem\SKILL.md on Windows. See the full install guide for step-by-step instructions.

Pro

One-click install via the desktop app

The ClaudSkills desktop app installs any skill directly into ~/.claude/skills/ with one click — no terminal required. Pro starts at $9/mo or $149 lifetime.

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Part of ClaudSkills — the open registry for Claude Code skills. · What's New · Install guide · About · llms.txt

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